In this issue:

Putin Doubts Iraq War After Talks with Bush, Blair

Prof. Gromyko Presents LaRouche's Land-Bridge as Crucial for Russian and World Development

Sustained Development Means Investment in Infrastructure, Industry, Technology and Social Protection

Izvestia Commentary: U.S. Plan To Occupy Saudi Oil Fields?

Low-Profile Meeting Between Russian Diplomat and Iraqi Opposition Figure

Zbigniew Brzezinski's Chechen Gambit

Putin Issues Harsh Letter to Shevardnadze

Kaliningrad an Issue in Upcoming Russia-EU Summit

From the Vol.1,No.27 issue of Electronic Intelligence Weekly
Russia and Central Asia News Digest

Putin Doubts Iraq War After Talks with Bush, Blair

Russian President Vladimir Putin told both British Prime Minister Tony Blair and President George Bush of his "serious doubts regarding the grounds for the use of force in relation to Iraq, in terms of both international law and global politics," said Kremlin spokesman Aleksei Gromov on Sept. 6, according to both China's People's Daily and The Times of London.

Gromov said that Putin emphasized the need to coordinate political and diplomatic efforts in implementing existing United Nations Security Council resolutions on Iraq. Additionally, Putin told Blair that he sees there is adequate possibility for a political solution to the Iraqi problem, and warned of the "serious, negative effect on the situation in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East" a war could have, which also "could cause a split in the U.S.-led international anti-terrorism coalition," Gromov said.

According to People's Daily, Gromov said Putin and Blair agreed to take similar lines on Iraq, both insisting on the return to Baghdad of international inspectors, as well as the creation of a monitoring mechanism in the country under the UN Security Council resolutions.

Other Russian officials echoed Putin's views. Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said in a meeting with his Hungarian counterpart Laszlo Kovacs, "We believe a policy of diplomatic steps and decisions might allow us to find a long-term settlement of the situation around Iraq, which would meet the interests of regional stability." Also, Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov said he hoped Russia would not have to exercise its veto on the use of force against Iraq in the 57th UN General Assembly, due to start next week in New York. "The Russian delegation expects that the issue of a military operation will not be raised in the Security Council and that we will not have to make a decision on it," he was quoted by Interfax as saying.

Following talks with Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri in Moscow Sept. 2, Foreign Minister Ivanov again stated that Russia backs the return of United Nations weapons inspectors to Iraq, as part of a package to avert war. Asked if Russia would veto military action against Iraq, in the event the U.S. sought approval from the UN Security Council, Ivanov replied only obliquely, according to Polit.ru: "I hope that there will be no such situation, that there will be no Security Council meeting on military action against Iraq."

Prof. Gromyko Presents LaRouche's Land-Bridge as Crucial for Russian and World Development

A major, three-part article by Prof. Yuri Gromyko has appeared in the daily on-line publication Russky Zhurnal (also known by the name of its English edition, The Russian Journal), on the occasion of the Johannesburg Earth Summit. The installments are in the Aug. 26, Aug. 29, and Sept. 3 issues. Under the title "Problems of Sustainable Development: Are We Prepared for this Discussion?," Gromyko takes up the theme Lyndon LaRouche has established in his dialogue with the Russian intelligentsia during recent years: what Russia's mission should be in the current world crisis.

Yuri Gromyko centers his article on the Eurasian Land-Bridge, which he introduces this way:

"The well-known economist and Democratic Party Presidential candidate Lyndon LaRouche argues that Russia's mission, which should be the basis for the national leadership to define strategic goals, is bound up with mastery of the expanses of Eurasia. Russia, uniquely, could take on the function of building a geostrategic land-bridge between Europe and the expanses of Central Asia, making possible the transport of innovative technologies from Europe into the territories of Asia. This transportation of inventions, discoveries and technological innovations could be organized through the creation of so-called corridors of development, along the transport arteries."

Gromyko goes on to demand the overthrow of the notion of "sustainable development," including the tricky way it is customarily translated in Russian (by a word meaning, approximately, "stable" development).

This article radically departs from the ordinary fare offered by Russky Zhurnal, which is a project of the self-styled "game technician" and informal Kremlin adviser Gleb Pavlovsky, and is widely read in Russian government, business, media, and other circles. Already, the Russky Zhurnal Web site has a lively forum discussion, in which a Hayekian economist has a fit, attacking LaRouche and Gromyko.

Sustained Development Means Investment in Infrastructure, Industry, Technology and Social Protection

Without investment in infrastructure, technological development for industry, and social protection for the population, there can be no "sustainable development," says Russia's official document for the Earth Summit in Johannesburg. The report, prepared by Russia's Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, was summarized in the daily Kommersant on Aug. 27. The authors, including also specialists from Russia's Foreign Ministry and Natural Resources Ministry, write that to achieve stable growth, Russia needs at least $2 trillion of investments. "Stable development" is the meaning conveyed by the term used to translate into Russian the phrase "sustainable development." The MEDT is headed by liberalizer German Gref, but its paper for the Johannesburg meeting reflects the continuing high, reality-based pressure from many quarters within Russia, to address the plight of the real economy.

The document of Gref's Ministry spectacularly contrasts with the subject of the speech prepared by Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov for the Earth Summit: "Conservation of Biodiversity in Russia." This contradiction apparently irritated Igor Chestin, head of the Worldwide Fund For Nature (WWF) Moscow office. The angry "biodiverter" told Kommersant that the Russian delegation was as unprepared for the discussion at the summit, as it was in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit. Chestin blamed Gref's Ministry for not inviting representatives of NGOs to the delegation. "Biodiverter" Cherstin was also dissatisfied with the fact that the Russian delegation was partly represented by diplomats. "With such a level of preparation, Russia should not send any delegation at all," grumbled WWF's asset.

Kommersant's Mikhail Zygar emphasized that while the big European countries were sending top political leaders to the Earth Summit, the United States would be represented only on the level of Secretary of State. The author believed that in this way, Washington was demonstrating contempt for the United Nations and the Third World. Meanwhile, this very sort of contempt was expressed by WWF asset Igor Chestin, who characterized the event as "a congress of losers, who have not fulfilled the obligations which they had given in Rio."

Izvestia Commentary: U.S. Plan To Occupy Saudi Oil Fields?

The scandal over Richard Perle's sponsorship of an anti-Saudi Arabia briefing to the Defense Policy Board on July 10 was the subject of an Izvestia commentary on Sept. 5. As EIW reported, the anti-Saudi briefing was given by a low-level RAND analyst, Laurent Murawiec, who has now been dumped by RAND, according to the Jerusalem Post. Murawiec had once been associated with Executive Intelligence Review, but left EIR in 1990, after several years of dissension over EIR's 1986 exposé of war criminal and thug Ariel Sharon's dirty espionage and mafia operations in Israel.

The Sept. 5 Izvestia writes of an "unprecedented crisis" in U.S.-Saudi relations, stating that it possesses "credible information" about "top-secret plans being drawn up by the U.S. armed forces, for a possible military operation on the territory of the Saudi Kingdom." Secrecy about the existence of preparations for a "final argument" against the Saudis "was first broken by a presentation to the Pentagon (sic), prepared by a group of experts from the RAND Corporation led by Laurent Murawiec ... concluding that Saudi Arabia is an enemy, not an ally of the U.S.," writes Izvestia. Then it cites a confidential discussion with an unnamed "U.S. specialist on the region, having worked for many years in Arab countries," who declared that "the idea behind [the Murawiec briefing] was no off-hand improvisation, but reflects a lengthy policy deliberation and the drawing-up of a straightforward plan," and offered certain details concerning a possible U.S. military operation.

According to Izvestia's source, the basic plan is to occupy and essentially split off the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, where the vast majority of the oil fields are located. "Taking over the oil fields would solve a lot of problems for the U.S. .... After all, Saudi Arabia was not always a single unified country. It would not be hard to find a pretext. In exactly that Eastern Province, where the oil 'El Dorado' is located, a significant proportion of the population are Shi'ites. U.S. intelligence services are entirely capable of provoking a conflict between them and the central power," playing on Sunni-Shi'ite tensions. According to one scenario, U.S. troops would move in under the pretext of defending the local population against a Saudi government attempt to suppress the uprising. Another case would be that in which a "radical anti-American regime in Riyadh" came to power.

Izvestia enumerates the armed forces of Saudi Arabia, concluding that in the event of a serious U.S. military operation, the Saudis could put up only a symbolic resistance. From the U.S. side there would be "more than enough reasons" to launch such an operation, Izvestia writes. But already the threat is forcing the Saudis to take a "pragmatic position" on Iraq. "The important thing is, that Riyadh should play by the U.S. rules" with regard to Iraq, in particular, and "not forget for a single minute, that the Eastern Province with its oil fields could be occupied within the space of a few hours."

Low-Profile Meeting Between Russian Diplomat and Iraqi Opposition Figure

Izvestia reported Aug. 31 on a recent, previously unpublicized meeting in Washington between Ittifaq Qandar of the Iraqi National Congress, and Andrei Kroshkin, second secretary at the Russian embassy in the United States. Izvestia stressed that "this is the first time that Moscow has gotten into contact with the Iraqi opposition," since the old Soviet contacts with the Iraqi Communist Party, before the CP was banned in the 1970s.

Like a number of other Russian commentaries, the Izvestia article notes that the recent talk about the $40-billion Moscow-Baghdad cooperation package came chiefly from the Iraqi side, not Russians. In a follow-up article Sept. 3, Izvestia reported on President Putin's press conference in Vladivostok at the end of August, where he said that the $40-billion figure was derived by summing all previous Soviet-Iraqi and Russian-Iraqi trade deals, and that new contracts were not involved. In the Sept. 2 Iraqi-Russian talks at the level of Foreign Minister, new economic deals were not on the agenda, according to Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov.

The Izvestia article commented, "Theoretically, George W. Bush was expected to receive stronger support from France and Germany in his plans of warfare. But the new partner in the anti-terrorist effort appeared to be more cooperative. Such a geopolitical paradox could seem surprising a year ago, but not today. Still, Washington politologists could not expect, even in their dreams, that Russia would decide to establish direct contacts with the Iraqi opposition." Izvestia cited a Russian diplomat, speaking under conditions of anonymity, who confirmed the fact of the Kroshkin-Qandar meeting, but warned against drawing far-reaching conclusions. This diplomat added that "recently, the Americans told us that in case we demonstrate understanding" for overthrowing Saddam, the U.S. would guarantee that the new leadership of Iraq would not cancel the contracts signed with Baghdad by Russian oil companies.

Zbigniew Brzezinski's Chechen Gambit

Zbigniew Brzezinski, whose direction of Carter Administration foreign policy did so much to create the "Afghansi" phenomenon in international terrorism, has become active as a would-be mediator of the decade-long conflict in and around Chechnya, the North Caucasus republic where Afghansi-linked guerrillas have led a fight to break away from the Russian Federation. The American Committee for Peace in Chechnya, headed by Brzezinski and Alexander Haig, moved from the op ed page of the Washington Post, into the domain of private diplomacy, as co-sponsor of talks held Aug. 16-19 in the Duchy of Liechtenstein between Akhmed Zakayev, top deputy to Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov, and several prominent Moscow political figures. The latter, who included State Duma members Aslambek Aslakhanov and Yuri Shchekochikhin, as well as former Speakers of the Russian Parliament Prof. Ruslan Khasbulatov (a Chechen) and Ivan Rybkin, did not have official backing from the Kremlin or the Russian government. Their activity, however, was not officially denounced.

According to statements made by Khasbulatov and Shchekochikhin at an Aug. 30 press conference in Moscow, the group drafted a plan, based on elements of Brzezinski's own proposals, which were presented in the Washington Post June 21, and those of Khasbulatov. The resulting draft plan calls for Chechnya to have attributes of independence, sufficient for conducting its own foreign and domestic policy, and guaranteed by the OSCE and the Council of Europe, while remaining juridically part of the Russian Federation. The question of physical enforcement of the guarantees, such as with peacekeeping forces, remained a subject of disagreement during the talks. So did the retention of Russian border guards on Chechnya's southern frontier (e.g., with Georgia), while Chechnya as a whole was demilitarized.

Lawyer Alexander Goldfarb, an uninvited representative of former Chechnya mediator and avowed foe of the Russian leadership Boris Berezovsky, was barred from the Liechtenstein talks, although he showed up.

Putin Issues Harsh Letter to Shevardnadze

The Kremlin press service released a Sept. 5 message from Russian President Vladimir Putin to Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, who several days earlier claimed that Georgian police forces had established control over Pankisi Gorge. The deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, was among the officials who scoffed at this assertion, saying that the Georgian operation was "a sham," and that Chechen terrorists were still operating in Pankisi, which borders Chechnya. The Putin letter repeated that Russia is prepared to send its military for a joint operation with Georgian forces against Chechen guerrillas in Pankisi Gorge, saying, "We need focussed, forceful and specific action to neutralize the bandit formations on Georgian territory. The tactic of 'peacefully forcing out' the terrorists is unacceptable. We are talking about terrorists who are based in Georgia and are continuing to disseminate death and destruction on Russian soil. Under international law, Russia has every reason to demand that Georgia take exhaustive measures" to eliminate that threat.

On Sept. 6, wire services reported a claim by Russian Internal Affairs Minister Boris Gryzlov that Tbilisi was ready to embark on joint operations with Russia in Pankisi, but this was denied by Georgian officials the next day.

Kaliningrad an Issue in Upcoming Russia-EU Summit

According to Russia's negotiator for problems related to Kaliningrad, the next scheduled summit between Russia and the European Union could be cancelled due to the Kaliningrad travel controversy, reported the London Financial Times on Sept. 5. If Russia's latest proposals for solving its transit visa dispute with the EU are rejected in Brussels, "I could convince Mr. Putin not to go to the [Russia-EU] summit in Copenhagen in November," stated Dmitri Rogozin, chairman of the Russian State Duma's Committee on Foreign Policy, and President Putin's special envoy on Kaliningrad.

With Poland and Lithuania becoming full members of the EU in December, Russian citizens would require visas in order to travel across their territory to Kaliningrad, which is part of the Russian Federation. Last week, Putin proposed visa-free travel between Russia and the EU. After that fell flat, Rogozin this week presented a new, compromise proposal in Brussels. On Sept. 5, Putin sent official letters to the Presidents of Poland and Lithuania, voicing hope that, "as good neighbors to Russia and as EU candidates, [you] will demonstrate a readiness for constructive dialogue on the Kaliningrad problem."

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