WESTERN EUROPEAN NEWS DIGEST
French Government Tries To Jam Up Momentum Toward Iraq War
By demanding a resolution in the UN Security Council different from that of the Anglo-Americans, the French government is trying to "jam up" the momentum toward an Iraq war.
That effort received a massive boost at the recent "Francophone nations' summit" in Beirut (see below), a senior French diplomatic source told EIR. He said: "The sentiment at the Francophone summit was extraordinary; they gave full backing to French government efforts to stop this drive toward war. There were 43-45 heads of state attending, in Beirut. Because of the Iraq war, many more people were in attendance than expected, some 2,500 people, whereas only half were originally expected. There is clearly a strong mood, to balance a monopoly of American power."
In this individual's view, "There is a chance to stop this war, unless the people pushing for it provoke some terrible terrorist incident. Even that, has become more difficult to do, than it was earlier. But there is still a danger, that the war party will 'invent' a war, by some drastic action."
Leaders From Over 50 Francophone Countries Meet in Beirut
Leaders and representatives from over 50 Francophone countries in Africa, Asia, and the Mideast gathered in Beirut earlier in October for their bi-annual meeting, where they issued a "Beirut Declaration" that called for "an immediate relaunching of the peace process in accordance with the Madrid Conference and UN resolutions, namely, Resolutions 242 and 338 of the UN Security Council." It also expressed their support for the Arab peace initiative adopted at the Beirut Arab League summit on March 27.
On the Iraq crisis, the declaration was tough. "We defend the supremacy of international law and the prevailing role of the United Nations and call upon collective responsibility to resolve the Iraqi crisis and on Iraq to respect fully its obligations."
Hosted by Lebanese President Lahoud, the conference was chaired by French President Jacques Chirac. It marked a "turning point in the history of the Francophonie," said Lahoud, "because it was the first to be held in an Arab country and to attract so many heads of state." Chirac paid special tribute to Algerian President Abdulaziz Bouteflika, who attended as the first Algerian leader to participate in an event led by France, the former colonial power.
Chirac said the summit was "exceptional," because of its emphasis on peace. Asked about his position on a possible unilateral U.S. attack on Iraq, he warned against an "automatic reaction covered by the international community, without having determined the extent of Iraqi cooperation," adding that the two-proposal approach France seeks, is inevitable.
The importance of Lebanon as the venue was stressed, as a "crossroads between the West and the East, the North and the South, the Arab-Muslim world and the Christian world."
According to an Arab source, the summit was sure to provoke anger in Washington, not only because of Chirac's high-profile organizing against the Anglo-American policy on Iraq, but also because the French President demonstratively shook the hand of Nasrullah, the head of the Lebanese-based Hezbollah, who was among the participants.
According to the Arabic daily Al-Hayat, a Saudi-Lebanese publication, unnamed Lebanese officials who met with Chirac on the sidelines in Beirut reported that, in Al-Hayat's words, "Chirac said during his visit to Lebanon that France was ready to use the veto right in the Security Council, if the U.S. insist on having the right to strike against Iraq unilaterally."
The officials further quoted Chirac as saying: "France is for a UN resolution which gives the UN inspectors the required extent [for action], so that the war which some of them in Washington want to launch automatically, would not be part of the outcome of the Security Council [discussions]." Chirac reportedly added that "the hawks in Washington, and some of them are in the direct circle around President George Bush, are in a hurry to start a war...."
Al-Hayat added that the same officials said that the "French side" explained the reasons behind Chirac's concern by saying: "The hawks among the rightwing Christian fanatics in this Administration behave as if the objectives they are outlining are a divine inspiration from God, and this is what is pushing France to cooperate with other countries to reach an understanding setting the limits in the Security Council."
Finally, the Lebanese officials explained that the French side pointed to "Paris's concern that Iraq would end up under direct American control in the wake of any military attack." They said the French are convinced that the issue of Iraqi oil is high on the American agenda, and that the real source of concern is the "intentions of the hawks faction in the U.S. Administration for the region as a whole, in the context of an attack on Iraq, and in the frame of the growing animosity inside the Administration against Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria."
Rees-Mogg: War Is Only Weeks Away
In his column in the Oct. 21 Times of London, Lord William Rees-Mogg repeatedly cited American political consultant Dick Morris as his main source, of the line that the American people will back a war with Iraq that will be unleashed in the December-January period. Writes Rees-Mogg: "In my lifetime, the United States has decided to go to war on four occasions, and has come to the brink of war several other times. The four wars were the Second World War, Korea, Vietnam, and the Gulf War. Now, the United States is prepared to go to war again; indeed, it would require an extraordinary surrender by Saddam Hussein to prevent it."
He reports that on a recent visit to New York, Dick Morris told him that the prevailing mood in America is less "doubt" about an Iraq war, than "ambivalence.... Dick Morris's reading of American public opinion, is that support for the President's policy is, if anything, stronger than could have been expected at this stage." Rees-Mogg continues by asserting that post-9/11, Americans are determined to crush international terrorism, don't basically distinguish between al-Qaeda and Saddam, and "now believe that time is not on the side of the United States in the war against terrorism."
He adds that the Americans are angry at France and Germany, consider that France has not been a great power since 1870, and also consider that, in any case, the French maneuvers at the UN are much too weak to stop a war. By contrast, Americans love Tony Blair, ranking him with Margaret Thatcher and Winston Churchill, as "great" British Prime Ministers of modern times. "Historically minded Americans discuss the continuities between the Pax Britannica of the imperial period, and the Pax Americana of the present day."
His Lordship concludes that the U.S. is "determined," to disarm Iraq, and to change the regime. "In New York, the expectation was that war would happen at some time between mid-December and late Januarya six-week window of opportunity which is only eight weeks away...."
Kissinger Worries Germany May Reorient Toward the East
In his monthly column for Welt am Sonntag, Henry Kissinger wrote that there is more than meets the eye, behind recent polemics from Germany against the American war plans for Iraq. "The theme of Iraq was used as a pretext for a more national orientation of German foreign policy," he opines.
The postwar elites of Atlanticism are vanishing, writes Kissinger; he cites as other contributory factors the fact that eastern Germans don't have that pro-Atlanticist tradition, are critical of Western globalization and Western strategies. Hence, he writes, there exists the threat that Germany will return to Kaiser Wilhelm's pre-World War I policies. If that should happen, he warns, Germans would become totally isolated again.
Kissinger also expresses the following concern: "Questions are raised about the leadership role in Europe, maybe in cooperation with Russia, which gives attention again to certain Prussian designs of the 19th century," not to mention the period between the First and Second World Wars when Germany and Russia enjoyed a temporary rapprochement via the Rapallo Treaty; and not to mention the 1939 Hitler-Stalin Pact, or the 1960s-70s Ostpolitik period.
It's Official: Schroeder Reelected with Razor-Thin Margin
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was officially reelected Oct. 22, following the narrow victory of his SPD party at the polls earlier. His margin of victory in his election as Chancellor was a wafer-thin three votes. In terms of party relations, his risky experiment with a red-green (SPD-Green Party) coalition for a second term is based on a majority of only four votes in the national Parliament (Bundestag). And, of the 306 Bundestag votes the SPD and Green Party control, one was not even cast for Schroeder in the parliamentary vote Oct. 22so Schroeder wound up getting only 305 votes, three more than the required absolute majority of 302. The Bundestag has 603 deputies.
Governing will always be walking a tightrope for Schroeder. On one or another essential issue of economic policy, or war and peace, coming up for a vote in the Bundestag in the near future, Schroeder may need even the two votes of the socialist PDS Party, as several Social Democrats and Greens are not certain to vote for him on those occasions.
Bush Administration Gave Germans Ultimatum To Side with U.S. in the War
As the Frankfurter Allgemeine daily reported front-page recently, the Americans have conveyed an ultimatum, a list of demands, to the German government, to be fulfilled by no later than the Prague NATO summit next month.
The demands include that Germany finally make clear that Saddam is the "bad guy" and not Bush, that Germany not cause problems for the Americans using their military bases and equipment on German soil, that the German ABC (Atomic-Biological-Chemical) defense unit now stationed in Kuwait remain there, and that Germany support Turkey actively and militarily, once the Turks invoke Article V of the NATO Treaty for self-defense against an enemy attack (from Iraq).
The latter demand is especially interesting in view of the fact that the Nov. 3 national elections in Turkey are expected to vote Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit out, and with him, the remaining anti-war current in Turkish politics.
France, Germany Agree on Agriculture Subsidies
France and Germany have agreed on agriculture subsidies for the 10 countries that will join the European Community in 2004. The new members had demanded to get the same payments for their farmers right after joiningthis was blocked by Germany, being the biggest donor for the EU, which demanded that the agriculture budget of the EU be kept the same. In this case, the payments for the farmers in the new countries would have had to be covered by proportionally cutting the subsidies for the farmers in the "old" countries. This position was rejected by France, which is the EU's biggest net receiver of subsidies.
The agreement is a classic compromise: The payments to the new members will rise more slowly, while the payments to the old ones will be cut less deeply. The new members will start by getting 25% of subsidies, then the level will rise gradually until 2006. From then on, spending on the Common Agricultural Policy would be fixed. French President Chirac explicitly demanded that privileges for member states like Great Britain, which gets a 2-billion-pound annual budget rebate from Brussels, be removed.
Euro Budget-Balancers Furious at Prodi's Repudiation of Maastricht
The Oct. 20 Sunday Telegraph, the Hollinger Corporation's mouthpiece for the British oligarchy, assaulted Roman Prodi, President of the European Commission, for Oct. 17 statement that "the [European Union] Stability Pact is stupid, like all decisions that are too rigid....." The Telegraph is worried that the Stability Pact could unravel, and that the row which Prodi's statement has unleashed, "has erupted at a sensitive moment for the EU as leaders of its 15 member states prepare to meet in Brussels this week to try to agree to the terms on offer to 10 new members, several from Eastern Europe, that are being invited to join in 2004." The Telegraph wonders if such prospective EU members as the Czech Republic and Poland, which "are being urged to keep their belts tightened and press on with sweeping economic reforms," would continue to do so when France, Germany, and Italy do not adhere to such strict criteria.
The vitriol against Prodi was also expressed by Edmund Stoiber of Germany's CDU party, who stated, "What Mr. Prodi said clearly disqualifies him as President of the European Commission. He has squandered any remaining trust in the Commission in Europe." Britain's Graham Watson, leader of the Liberal group in the European Parliament, the second largest grouping, said, "There is already great concern that France is cocking a snook at the rest of the EU by saying that these rules do not apply to them."
In a second article, the Telegraph carries an opinion piece by Grant Ringshaw under the title, "Unstable Central Bank," which says that Prodi and others threaten "the credibility of the European Central Bank, and its President, Wim Duisenberg." Monetarist Duisenberg and the ECB need to stick to their policies. "If it does nothing, the damage to Europe's battered economies may be even greater."
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