MIDEAST NEWS DIGEST
Russians and French Denounce New U.S. Resolution on Iraq
On Oct. 19, in an interview with "The LaRouche Show," (see last week's EIW), Lyndon LaRouche noted that, with pressure from the international community in favor of a diplomatic track towards Iraq, and against military action, George W. Bush would be faced with the prospect of taking the unilateral action, that his current team of warmongers would like, in order to advance the utopian imperial doctrine. As EIW goes to print, events at the United Nations have reached a point close to the level of "showdown" referenced by LaRouche.
After meeting with chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix on Oct. 22, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said, "The American draft resolution [formulating demands on Iraq] ... does not meet the criteria which the Russian side laid out earlier and which it confirms today."
Blix himself said, "They may have evidence [of weapons violations], I am not brushing it aside, but in our [the UN weapons inspection] archive there is no clear-cut evidence." After seeing the new U.S. draft resolution, French Ambassador to the United Nations Jean-David Levitte said he does not think an agreement is close. Russia and France are permanent members of the UN Security Council, with the right of veto (the other permanent members are the U.S., Britain, and China).
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said China "will take seriously" measures for UN weapons inspections which lead to a peaceful settlement to the U.S.-Iraq standoff, but that the first step must be the return of inspectors to Iraq.
White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, speaking to reporters at a political rally in Pennsylvania, said the United Nations does not have "forever" to agree to a resolution, and that the process will soon be concluded. On Oct. 25, when discussions did not please Team Bush, the U.S. formally introduced its resolution, to block any rival resolution by France.
And the New York Post, the Anglo-American imperial warmongers, "got ugly," with a lead editorial calling the terrorist attack in Moscow "cruel poetic justice," and wondering whether France might be "next," and thus perhaps learn not to oppose the U.S. on the Iraq.
Foiled Coup Attempt in Qatar Could Jeopardize Iraq War
In an article called "Qatar Coup Plot May Thwart U.S. War Plans," Stratfor, the Austin, Texas-based online intelligence newsletter, reported Oct. 24 that there was an unsuccessful coup attempt in Qatar in early October. The Stratfor report, based on information from Qatari diplomats and Russian military intelligence officials, said that on Oct. 12, scores of high-level military officers were rounded up after the coup plot was revealed by a defector. Many of those arrested were Yemeni and Pakistani officers (half of the Qatari military is made up of foreign nationals from throughout the Muslim world). A report on the foiled coup, which ran on Oct. 16 in Arabicnews.com, claimed that some of the coup-plotters had links to al-Qaeda, but Stratfor said it was unable to confirm this allegation. Stratfor reported that officials in the Bush Administration had hoped to keep a lid on the story of the attempted coup. American military personnel in civilian clothes reportedly accompanied the Qatari authorities in some of the arrests.
One immediate fallout of the foiled coup plot, Stratfor reported, is that the U.S. has postponed crucial Central Command headquarter maneuvers, which were to have taken place in Qatar in November. Those exercises involved 600 Centcom command center personnel, testing their ability to operate out of the newly built military base, which would be used as a backup command for an Iraqi war, in the likelihood that the Saudis refused to allow the U.S. to use the state-of-the-art center at Prince Sultan Air Base.
The Stratfor article summarizes some of the problems facing the U.S.: "If Qatar joins Saudi Arabia in refusing Washington the use of its bases, and Kuwait remains under threat of a pro-al-Qaeda fifth column, then the entire southern front of a U.S. war plan will crumble.... Turkey simply does not have the bases and logistics networks to host 100% of the war effort, and a north-only option is out of the question. Unless and until the Qatari government regains confidence in its security, a U.S. war on Iraq may be delayed indefinitely."
Turkish Government Sees Danger in U.S. War Plans
The Turkish government expressed extreme concern that the U.S. is aiding designs for an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq, which would trigger a separatist movement among Kurds in Turkey's southeast. Turkish Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel told the Oct. 20 edition of the Turkish newspaper Milliyet that "U.S. officials say they do not want an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq but developments there show a de facto state has been set up.... This raises suspicions about whether the United States is trying to provoke Ankara by supporting these developments." Sina Gurel added, "Proclamation of an independent Kurdish state ... will meet with Turkish intervention." Agence France Presse said this could mean Turkish military action.
Gen. Tommy Franks, the head of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), was meeting Turkish military commanders in Ankara on Oct. 21 for talks including on the Iraq war. But those familiar with the "Wolfowitz cabal" in the Administration, say that there is no way that Gen. Franks could, in truth, deny that the U.S. is working on "deals" to divide Iraq, and possibly create a Kurdish state.
A leak from Associated Press on Oct. 20 confirms the fears expressed by the Turkish government. AP reported that a top Iraqi Kurd military commander backed by the U.S., says that his forces will capture the Iraqi oil fields around Kirkuk and Mosul, in tandem with a U.S. attack on Saddam Hussein. Kurdish Commander Hamid Efendi said that this action is consistent with the draft Kurdish Constitution: "Kirkuk is Kurdish. So are parts of Mosul.... We would want to take these areas if the Americans attack."
This could mean direct combat breaking out between Kurdish and Iraqi forces over control of the oil fields, which Pentagon planners do not want to happen, but a well-placed Middle East source told EIW that the Wolfowitz gang "cannot control certain messy elements in reality." That is why the utopian plans are seen as "insane," the source added.
From the Murder of Rabin to Sharon's March on Haram-al-Sharif
On Oct. 19, an extraordinary article in Ha'aretz revealed major Shin Beth intelligence failures in preventing the 1995 assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Yossi Melman, the senior Ha'aretz correspondent for intelligence, writes that a potential for an assassination attempt on Rabin was known four months before his assassination on Nov. 4, 1995. Melman further draws an interesting line from the Shin Bet "failure" that leads to Ariel Sharon's march on the Al Haram-al-Sharif, five years later.
A memorandum drafted on July 10, 1995, written by the head of the operations branch of the Shin Bet's VIP unit, Haggai Tal, stated: "The possibility that a political assassination could be perpetrated in Israel looks far more realistic today than in the past. The potential, somewhere in one of the settlements in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank], in Metropolitan Tel Aviv, or in New York." It went on to say that a further withdrawal from the West Bank and perhaps the withdrawal from all of the territories "will be a catalyst for action." Such a murder could take place if "1) the right wing were to prove unable to mobilize large-scale support for its struggle 'and we will keep seeing the same 1,000 people demonstrating all over the place'; 2) the political process would continue." Tal recommended a "reexamination and reassessment" and tightening up of all VIP security procedures, as well as banning citizens from carrying firearms at events where the Prime Minister would appear.
Shortly after this, Tal went on a two-year study leave and his replacement shelved the report. After the assassination, Tal testified before the Shamgar Commission which investigated the assassination. He told the truth about his report and the fact that it was not followed up. The Commission called for the resignation of the head of the Shin Bet, Carmi Gillon, and the transfer of relevant leaders of the VIP branch. One of those leaders was replaced by Avi Dichter, who is now head of the Shin Bet and who now decides, for the Sharon government, which Palestinians will be assassinated.
Melman points out that almost everyone involved in the Shin Bet failures, including Carmi Gillon got very nice promotions. In September 2000, the same contaminated "VIP branch" of Shin Bet approved the "visit" by Sharon to the Muslim holy site the Haram-al-Sharif/Temple Mount, with several thousand Israeli police, the event which triggered the current Intifada and bloody war. But Melman reveals that the Shin Bet assessed that if a peace agreement had been reached in 2000, there would have been "a Jewish Intifada," involving the radical rightwing Jewish terrorist gangs.
Sharon Tries To Blackmail U.S. for $10 Billion
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon wants $10 billion from the Bush Administration as his price for staying quiet during the war on Iraq, reported Ha'aretz on Oct. 20. Since sources in Sharon's government have been leaking threats of nuclear strikes against Iraq, for the last several months, Sharon's demand has the stench of blackmail from a "nuclear terrorist."
This obvious blackmail was being drafted into a proposal by Sharon's bureau chief and private attorney, Dov Weisglas, who will present it to the Bush Administration. The quid pro quo was already indicated by the fact that, during their meeting, he got President Bush to make a statement on how confident he was in the Israeli economydespite the fact that it is in free fall.
According to Ha'aretz, "A government source said the reason for the aid request stems from the United States' expected campaign against Iraq, coupled with the American desire that Israel not interfere with Washington's plans or use IDF [Israel Defense Force] troops against Iraq."
Israel would request the money in the form of guarantees for loans from private banks, direct state-to-state loans from the U.S. Treasury, and conversion of some American defense aid into shekels. The request for $10 billion is also symbolic, since George Bush "41" froze $10 billion in loan guarantees to Israel in order to pressure Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir to go to the Madrid Middle East Peace Conference. The Likud establishment in Israel has never forgiven certain Bush "41" advisers, like James Baker III and Edward Djerejian, for this pressure on Shamir.
Israeli Economy on Life Support
Israeli Finance Minister Silvan Shalom made a not-so-secret trip to London in an effort to prevent a downgrading of Israel's sovereign credit rating. He will meet with representatives of Standard and Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch. The meeting is in London because these companies refuse to send their executives to Israel, due to the security situation there. According to Israeli-TV reports, Shalom was to try to convince the rating agencies that U.S. loan guarantees might materialize as hinted by Sharon after his meeting with President Bush (see item above).
Despite the fact that Israel does not have a history of defaulting, Israeli Treasury bonds are trading at 12% interest, the level at which junk bonds trade, indicating the severity of the problem.
On Oct. 22, Fitch, the British rating agency, did not downgrade Israel's sovereign debt, but said there are long-term problems. Fitch continued to give an A- for Israel's long-term credit rating for its foreign currency debt. But it has cut Israel's long-term local currency credit rating to A from A+.
A statement by Fitch said, "The downgrade of the long-term local currency rating reflects the sharp rise in the budget deficit and the public debt ratio over the last two years as the economy has moved into recession under the combined impact of the global slowdown, the high-tech slump and the violence associated with the Intifada." Fitch pointed out that Israel's high public debt, at 103% of Gross Domestic Product, and rising budget deficit of 8% of GDP, puts it second only to Japan. They also said the conflict involving Iraq could exacerbate the short-term outlook.
Although Israeli Finance Minister Shalom expressed relief that Israel's sovereign credit rating wasn't downgraded, he said that the cutting of the local currency credit rating was a warning of things to come.
Pollard's Wife Claims Moles in White House; Defends Israeli Spying
Statements by the rightwing Zionist wife of convicted Israeli spy Jonathan Jay Pollard, raised questions that the national security of the U.S. is indeed still threatened by an Israeli spy ring. On Oct. 15, Arutz Sheva, an Israeli radio station, reported that in an interview with IsraelNationalNews.com, Esther Pollard said the Pollard network has high-level contacts "close to the President," who keep them informed on discussions between Sharon and Bush.
Esther Pollard, who married the convicted spy after he was in prison, and took the Biblical name "Esther" as a political statement after their marriage, was demanding that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon take her along to meet President Bush, but she was turned down by the Prime Minister's office.
She claims she told an assistant to Sharon "that I would like to remind the Prime Minister ... we have some pretty important contacts in Washington, close to the President, and they assure us that the Prime Minister has never raised the issue with the President."
Mrs. Pollard also justified Pollard's spying in her statement, citing the danger of Iraq. "Jonathan was the first to sound the alarm about Saddam Hussein," she said, "and that was 18 years ago!" She claimed, "And that, in fact, is the reason he is sitting in prison." Eighteen years ago would make it 1984precisely at the time that author Kenneth Timmerman reports that Richard Perle and Steven Bryen were leading the obstructionist effort from the Defense Department, to block exports of computers and machine tools to Iraq.
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