Asia News Digest
President Putin's Remarkable Diplomacy in the 'Strategic Triangle'
See this week's RUSSIA DIGEST for developments relating to cooperation in the Russia-China-India "Strategic Triangle."
Vajpayee Visit to China a Major Topic in India-China Talks
The visit of Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee to China is a leading topic at the current India-China talks in New Delhi, where Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi is attending the 14th meeting of the Joint Working Group (JWG) on the India-China boundary issue. Wang is meeting his Indian counterpart Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal. According to the Indian press, it is also "widely expected" that the situation in Iraq and terrorism will also be discussed.
In Beijing Nov. 21, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said that the visit of Vajpayee to China, would be a "positive step" to promote the "smooth" development of bilateral ties. It is likely Vajpayee will visit China early next year.
"We believe that the exchange of visits between the two countries is of great importance, promoting the bilateral ties," Kong Quan said at a press briefing. Kong Quan said that Vajpayee had "happily" accepted the invitation from Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, to visit China "at his convenience"; the invitation was extended when Zhu Rongji was in India in January. The "specific schedule is still under discussion," Kong said.
India-China Boundary Talks Are Progressing
The India-China talks that began Nov. 21 in New Delhi concern the two sides working on moves towards demarcation of a 4,000-km Line of Actual Control. Disputes remain over the "Western Sector" above Jammu and Kashmir, for which area maps are still to be exchanged.
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Indian television from Beijing, that he is optimistic about the talks.
After the discussions on Nov. 21, Indian Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal said that the two sides "have reached a reasonable understanding on how to deal with this matter and on how to move forward. Both sides felt that hurdles should be overcome in the complicated exercise of delineating the Line of Actual Control."
Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha said "the talks were positive and satisfactory." Other officials added that "both sides [are] keen to sort out differences relating to the western sector of their border."
Transform Himalayas From Barrier to 'Passage Between Two Great Civilizations'
"The time is now" for India and China to "declare their national commitment to transform the Himalayas from the political barrier they are today into a passage between the two great civilizations," wrote leading Indian commentator C. Raja Mohan in The Hindu Nov. 21.
This must be the leading issue of the planned visit of Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee to China, says Mohan. "To avoid it from becoming an empty slogan," he wrote, "the two leaders must give decisive instructions to their bureaucracies to sort out in quick time the many difficulties that stand in the way of making the Himalayas a bridge between the two large markets."
Vajpayee's visit will be the first by an Indian Prime Minister to China since that of P.V. Narasimha Rao in September 1993. Before that, it was Rajiv Gandhi in December 1988 who visited, to normalize relations with China.
Mohan called for "annual visits by the top leaders" of both countries, and said that this must "be one of the decisions from Mr. Vajpayee's visit."
Since there are many problems between the two sides, Mohan wrote, it is important to have "one big idea" which "could drive bilateral relations forward in the coming years." That would be making the Himalayas "a passage between the two great civilizations."
The Himalayas are now the locus of many of the long-term disputes between China and India, but these geopolitical ideas are "inherited from the imperial age.... The time is now for India and China to begin the transformation of the geopolitics of the Himalayan region from confrontation to cooperation." This would include "reopening of the historic silk road that runs between Sikkim and Tibet."
The 'Eastern Silk Road on Water'
The "Eastern Silk Road on Water" is being developed among China, Russia, and Japan, which are cooperating to develop a shipping route to directly connect Northeast China's Heilongjiang Province to northern areas of Japan.
The shipping route will begin at the Songhuajiang and Heilongjiang Rivers in China, go through the Tatar Strait in Russia, and then to Japan.
The three countries said they attach great importance to the construction of this international trade passage and will fund infrastructure and transportation services, China's official news service Xinhua reported Nov. 21. Compared with the current water route via Dalian, this new "Eastern Silk Road on Water" will cut distance by one-third, travel time by half, and costs by 20%.
The agreement had been signed in 1992, but is only now being realized.
Thailand Proposes To Fund Major Dam in Myanmar; Asks Chinese To Join
Thailand has proposed a major dam project in Myanmar with Chinese help, without any private investment. The proposed $5.5-billion hydroelectric scheme for Myanmar's Salween River would provide energy for Thailand's Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), and save EGAT $1.5 billion over 15 years.
China has been asked to participate, but has not yet agreed. But Thailand is willing to pay the entire cost for the 5,000-MW power plant, and has made clear that it will be purely a government project, without private investments. EGAT Governor Sitthiporn Ratanopas will visit Myanmar's capital Yangon, this week to discuss the plan.
South Korean President Hits Sanctions as Leading to War
South Korean President Kim Dae-jung told press and unification experts that economic sanctions would not force North Korea to give up its nuclear program, but would force the North to restart the process creating plutonium to build nuclear bombs, and "lead to another war on the Korean peninsula," the Korea Times reported Nov. 19. The prominent lead article was entitled "Sanctions on NK Will Not Help, President Says."
"In another scenario, the North Korean economy could simply collapse, not being able to bear the impact of economic sanctions," President Kim said. "This would trigger an exodus of millions of North Koreans to South Korea. Economic sanctions are not a cure-all.
"We are offering the North a way out of its current crisis in return for a promise to abandon its nuclear program," he said. Regarding President Bush's Nov. 15 statement promising the North "a different future," Kim said it was made in response to Pyongyang's demand for a bilateral non-aggression treaty.
"I closely coordinate with President Bush and Japanbut we are responsible for our own fate. We will say whatever we feel is necessary," Kim said, implying that South Korea will continue to work closely with its allies but maintain its stand on the resolution of the looming nuclear crisis. Kim urged the North to respond quickly, saying, "Time is running out."
As reported in last week's EIW INDEPTH, the decision by the U.S. and European nations to cut off energy shipments is creating a crisis. North Korea may experience severe energy shortages if the heavy oil shipments from the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) are stopped, experts on North Korea told Yonhap News Nov. 18.
The suspension of fuel oil will hit the energy supply in the North hard as the country relies on thermoelectric power plants during wintertime. Hydroelectric-power generation accounts for 60% of the North's total electric power production, but normal operations of such power plants will become impossible from the end of October when temperatures drop below freezing, the experts said.
The experts pointed out that the freeze lasts until March before a period of drought ensues, reducing the effectiveness of hydroelectric power plants. They estimated the North's electric power production will decrease to 2 million kilowatts from 7.39 million kw due to outdated facilities mostly built between 1910-40, and to a lack of parts.
Indonesia Works To Settle Conflict Over Aceh Separatism
Southeast Asia's longest running separatist strugglethe Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka/GAM) in North Sumatra, is preparing for peace. If all goes well, a treaty may be signed on Dec. 9 by Indonesia and leaders of the movement, ending a 26-year-old secessionist struggle. This would end not only the longest still-running regional conflict, but the last major separatist conflict within Indonesia. Similar conflicts in the Malukus and in Papua have taken turns toward accommodation with Jakarta.
Discussions between the GAM government-in-exile in Sweden, and Jakarta have been assisted by the Swiss-based Henry Dunant Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, in which U.S. Gen. (ret) Anthony Zinni played an important role as mediator.
Aceh, an independent sultanate before the Dutch invasion in 1870, was the first province to support Indonesian independence in 1945, but attempted to secede in 1976, not unrelated to the discovery of major oil and gas resources. At least 12,000 people, mostly civilians, have died in the struggle, including 2,000 in 2002.
U.S. Trade Rep Wants Singapore To Drop Sovereign Rights
Although the press is reporting that the long-stalled U.S.-Singapore Free Trade Agreement is about ready, the last significant block is most revealing. In wire reports, Nov. 19, Tommy Koh, Singapore's chief negotiator, described that last issue as a major matter. "If there is no agreement," he said, "it's a deal breaker."
The issue is Singapore's right to impose capital movement restrictions in times of financial or economic crisis. Under IMF and WTO provisions, member nations can fix the exchange rate or curb capital flows in an emergency situation to stanch a financial crisis. But, "the U.S. would like us to modify our commitment," said Singapore Trade Minister George Yeo. "We are not comfortable. We are still having discussions ... we should be able to resolve this in good time."
U.S. Trade Rep Robert Zoellick, a leading cohort of the Cheney/Wolfowitz cabal, tried to pressure Singapore by going public with the deal, even though there is a major issue unresolved. "I am delighted to announce that Singapore and the U.S. have completed the substance of a free-trade agreement except for one issue," he told a news conference in Singapore.
Zoellick, apparently trying to bum's-rush Singapore into accepting this demand, said he expects a draft legal text of the FTA to be completed in a matter of weeks, and definitely by year's end. "I am hopeful that we would have final action during 2003 and it would come into effect in 2004," he said.
Christian Fundie Extremists Threaten Global Security, Says Malaysian Foreign Minister
Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar Said President Bush should put anti-Islam televangelists Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson in jail for anti-Islam extremism, the same way that the U.S. is demanding other governments around the world act against Islamic extremists.
"These anti-Islam extremists pose as much threat to global security as any terrorist group, because their lies about Islam could fan more hatred, which could spark more violence and atrocities against the innocent. The U.S. government should, in fact, put them in prison, the same way it is demanding all of us act against extremist elements which oppose its interests around the world," reported the New Straits Times on Nov. 16.
He was asked to comment on a statement by U.S. President George W. Bush which sternly repudiated the recent anti-Islam rhetoric of some U.S. Christian figures. "It is not enough to just verbally oppose these people. A definitive action must be taken against them if we want to avoid a Clash of Civilizations between Islam and the West," said Syed Hamid.
Jerry Falwell has described Prophet Mohammad as a terrorist, and Pat Robertson said Muslims were a bigger threat to Jews than the Nazis. "Personally, I don't think they really understand the consequences of the indignities inflicted on the Muslims, nor care about how we feel about being labelled terrorists after the Sept. 11 tragedy," said Syed Hamid. "They should remember that Muslims, despite not having all those sophisticated weapons, make up one-third of the world population."
Syed Hamid also expressed his "extreme disappointment" with the remark by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Brussels regarding circumcision, with malice for Islamic radicals. "Leaders like Putin should bear in mind that those who are oppressed will most likely spring back to defend themselves," he said.
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