Russia and Central Asia News Digest
Iran and Russia Negotiating 10-Year Economic Agreement
Talks between Russian Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Khristenko and Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh have advanced plans for a 10-year economic agreement between their two countries, IRNA reported from Moscow Oct. 24. The 10-year deal is intended to pave the way for wide-ranging bilateral economic cooperation, especially in the oil and fuel sector. Zanganeh also held talks with Energy Minister Igor Yusufov, focussed on Russian investments in the Iranian Southern Pars, the world's biggest gas field.
The talks were not only bilateral, but were held in the context of relations between Russia and OPEC. Khristenko stated: "We discussed the situation regarding Russia-OPEC cooperation and prospects for our interaction in the oil market." Iran and Saudi Arabia are the biggest OPEC producers.
The Iranian-Russian talks occurred at the same time as the reported visit of Saudi Prince Turki to Moscow, and the hostage crisis at the Moscow theater (see INDEPTH).
More Dimensions of Saudi-Russian Cooperation Reported
"Could anyone imagine just a year ago that Russian oil companies would be given access to such a strategic prize of U.S. national interests: Saudi oilfields?" asked an Oct. 31 commentary in the Russian web publication Pravda.ru. The article reported that, just two weeks after the first session of the Saudi-Russian Joint Commission on Economic, Commercial, Investment and Technical Cooperation, held in mid-October, the Saudi government has decided to allow Russian oil and gas companies to work on the development of oil and gas fields in Saudi Arabia.
Pravda.ru went on to link this development to the serious damage done to Saudi-American relations, after the 9/11 attacks were blamed on Osama bin Laden. "Although no official accusations have been made, U.S. reports say that it is obvious that the money the USA pays for Saudi Arabian oil is being spent on the development of Wahhabism (which is the same as terrorism). These reports can only be issued with the sanctions of the U.S. State Department." Since then, Pravda.ru wrote, "The withdrawal of Saudi capital from the USA took place within a very short period, which scared investors of the world."
Gas Pipeline from Russia's Sakhalin to Japan Is Discussed
Japan's government is ready to support the natural gas pipeline project connecting the Sakhalin-1 deposit with Japan, Moscow's Vedomosti reported Oct. 23. The final agreements are supposed to be signed in January by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Traditionally, Japan has imported natural gas from Indonesia, Australia, Qatar, and Brunei.
Russian interests (daughter companies of Rosneft) own 20% of the Sakhalin-1 project, which is located on Sakhalin Island off the Pacific Coast of Russia and just north of Japan. The rest is shared among Exxon Mobil (U.S.), SODECO (Japan), and ONGC (India).
Commonwealth of Independent States Forms Energy Council
On Oct. 23, energy ministers from all the CIS countries except Turkmenistan, assembled at the President Hotel in Moscow, on invitation from Russian Energy Minister Igor Yusufov (the CIS includes newly independent states that were formerly republics in the Soviet Union). In his speech to the gathering, Yusufov linked the problem of energy independence of the CIS countries with their collective security. At the same time, he urged the leadership of the oil and gas exporters among the CIS members, to establish more durable connections with transit countries, as well as the final consumers. He expressed belief that the CIS states could pursue a joint energy policy.
Yusufov's deputy Oleg Gordeyev, according to the daily Kommersant of Oct. 24, estimated the share of CIS countries in world energy production as very significant: 12% of the oil, 25% of the natural gas, and 10% of the electric power. Each of the guests emphasized the success of his country in the relevant sphere: Kazakstan's Vladimir Shkolnik claimed that by 2015, oil extraction in his country will rise from today's 45 million tons per year, to 150 million tons; Moldavia's Yakob Timchuk proposed to unify the efforts of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and his country, to transport electric power to Bulgaria and Yugoslavia; Georgia's David Mirkhulava spoke of exporting electricity from Russia and Azerbaijan via Georgia to Turkey.
A report on the concept of the newly established CIS Fuel and Energy Council was given by Ukrainian Fuel Minister Vitali Haiduk. He announced that, by December, the new body will select its secretariat and working groups on oil, gas, coal, electric power, and joint legislation on rates policies.
Putin Warns 'Ideologues and Financiers' of Terrorism
On Oct. 28, a national day of mourning in Russia for the victims of the Chechen hostage-taking in Moscow the previous week, President Vladimir Putin spoke to a Cabinet meeting, announcing a change in the standing instructions to the Russian Armed Forces General Staff with respect to terrorism. Putin said, "We are paying a high price both for the weakness of the state, and for inconsistent actions." He stated that "Russia will make no deals with terrorists and will not give in to any blackmail."
He then characterized "international terrorism" as becoming crueller, and developed this as follows: "Terrorist threats are to be heard in various parts of the world about using means comparable with weapons of mass destruction. With full responsibility, I want to state that if anyone so much as tries to use such means against our country, Russia will respond with measures adequate to the threat to the Russian Federation. Against all places where the terrorists themselves, the organizers of these crimes, and their ideological and financial inspirers are located. I stress wherever they might be."
Putin added, "The corresponding instructions on making changes in plans for the use of the armed forces have been issued today to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation."
Russia Demands Britain Crack Down on Chechen Networks
Beyond Russia's strenuous protest to Denmark for allowing the World Chechen Congress to go forward the weekend of Oct. 26 (see INDEPTH), the Times of London reports that Russia has also pressured Britain to crack down on Chechen terrorist networks. Russia is to bring up the matter at the upcoming Anglo-Russian security summit. "The Russian are so concerned at the activities of some British groups that they have been gathering their own intelligence on them," the Times reports. The paper quotes a Russian diplomat who said, "We know there are some in Britain who boast of sending money to what they call Chechen freedom-fighters and also send British recruits to shoot at Russian soldiers." As EIR has documented since 1996, the Chechen operation is heavily "infiltrated" by British elements, to put it mildly, and has multiple points of liaison in London.
Netanyahu, Other Israeli Crazies Meddle in Chechen Terrorism Policy
In the midst of the Moscow hostage crisis, former Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu popped up on Russian television to promote the inevitability of new, more serious attacks, which should prompt Russia to back the Israeli and U.S. war hawks' policies.
Appearing by satellite hookup on the Oct. 27 edition of Vladimir Pozner's Vremena program, Netanyahu drew an alarmist picture of a coming second terrorist attack in Russia, this time with the use of portable nuclear weapons. From this, he jumped to the conclusion that Russia should support the Israeli side in the Mideast, Israel could assist Russia in the war against Chechen terrorists, while the U.S. should support them both.
On the same program, Russian politicians across a broad political spectrum, from liberal leader Boris Nemtsov ("Russia's position is close to that of France") to Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov ("Russia has become more free to make its own choice"), opposed allowing the hostage-taking to push Russia in the direction of supporting an attack on Iraq, in particular.
The line that Putin must turn to the Israeli war hawks for advice and collaboration, was also plugged in an Oct. 30 Jerusalem Post article by Sharon biographer and toady Uri Dan, who played up the image of Movsar Barayev's band of hostage-takers, wearing "explosive belts, and head bands bearing the words in Arabic: 'There is no God but Allah,' just like the Hizbullah terrorists in Lebanon, or the Hamas and Islamic Jihad suicide bombers." He claimed there were intelligence leaks about Chechens being in close phone contact "with people from the Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in the [Israeli-occupied] territories." Uri Dan wrote that Putin's only hope is to cultivate the special relationship sought with him since 1999 by Ariel Sharon's aide Maj. Gen. (Res.) Meir Dagan, who has just become head of the Mossad.
General Ivashov Warns U.S.: Invasion of Iraq May Trigger Global Civil War, Economic Collapse
Russian Gen. Col. Leonid Ivashov, vice-president of the Geopolitical Studies Academy, gave an interview to the weekly newspaper Vek on Oct. 18, which was carried in Defense and Security the next week. He warned that a U.S. invasion of Iraq could trigger a global civil war, targetted against the United States and its new doctrine of unilateral empire. Ivashov linked the Iraq war drive to the collapsing U.S. economy: "The U.S. is experiencing a serious economic crisis," he told the interviewer, "and it sees a solution to this in seizing the world's key oil deposit regions. The launch of aggression against Iraq will signal that the battle over redistribution of global energy resources has entered its decisive stage."
Ivashov warned that, no matter what the outcome of a U.S. military action against Iraq, the "consequences will be very serious," because the U.S. action will end the global security system erected at the close of World War II. "The United States," he said, "is usurping the right to decide the fate of any state which it finds to be unsatisfactory, for whatever reason. This could lead to the world sliding into chaos. According to our analysts, the world will see a new phenomenon: global civil war." Ivashov further forecast the emergence of coalitions of nations allied against the new American policy, engaging in economic warfare.
He also stated clearly that the instability on the world oil markets that would result from a unilateral U.S. takeover of the Persian Gulf reserves, would be bad for Russia, because the wild fluctuations in price would undermine stable long-term economic planning and investment.
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