In this issue:

Askary's 'On History as Tragedy' Featured in Al-Bayan

Saudi Arabia To Seek Peaceful Solution, Even if UN Sanctions War on Iraq

Jewish Leader Warns Against Sharon's Course of National Suicide

Israeli Supreme Court Reinstates Arab Candidates, Party to Ballot

Goetterdaemerung for Ariel Sharon?

Secret UN Report Warns of 500,000 Iraqi Casualties

U.S. Training of Iraqi Exiles a Violation of Law

From Volume 2, Issue Number 2 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Jan. 13, 2003
Mideast News Digest

Askary's 'On History as Tragedy' Featured in Al-Bayan

An article by Lyndon LaRouche associate Hussein Askary in Dubai's Al-Bayan newspaper charged that, among Arabs and Muslims, "Those who are peddling the idea of the inevitability of war, the reshaping of the map of the Middle East, and American colonial supremacy in the world are probably pagans, who believe in the arbitrary will of irrational Olympian Gods."

The article, carried in the Jan. 3 special New Year's political supplement, starts by stating that "most of the time, history is a tragedy, whose events are unravelling on the scene of real life of societies, almost exactly as we see such events in Aeschylus, Shakespeare, and Schiller's dramas." It states that there are two major factors in history: One is subjective and the other is objective, while Allah is the judge. "About 2,390 years ago, Plato said in the Timaeus dialogue, that civilizations in general vanish for two reasons: either through natural disasters, or through human society's own stupidity."

The article reviews the record of human suffering around the world, the mass death in Africa due to preventable diseases, famine, and poverty; mass layoffs and economic and financial disintegration in the industrial nations, which are also solvable. It exposes the nature of the current economic-strategic crisis and warns against the Arab "house slaves who all the time try to tell us how mighty the U.S. economy and globalization are, and that we have to obey the U.S. democratization orders and the military dictators the U.S. war hawks want to install in our countries." This part includes an unmistakable attack on the Arab journalists who slandered LaRouche recently.

The second part of the article takes up the "solution" to the tragedy. Ashkary writes, "Nevertheless, I am an optimist, because I believe in the sublime nature of the mission through which man was entrusted by Allah to become His vice-Regent on Earth [Khalifa]." The rest of the article describes the solution to this situation through the ideas of LaRouche and his dual war-avoidance strategy of the New Bretton Woods system and the Eurasian Land-Bridge.

Saudi Arabia To Seek Peaceful Solution, Even if UN Sanctions War on Iraq

In his weekly press conference, reported in the Saudi press on Jan. 8, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal reiterated Saudi Arabia's strong position against a war in Iraq, but in stronger words this time. "If the United Nations asks Saudi Arabia to join, depending on the material breach that they show and depending on the proof that they show, Saudi Arabia will decide," Prince Saud told reporters. "We are interested in peace and searching for a peaceful (solution) to this crisis and even if the United Nations decides on war, we want them to give us a last chance to exert efforts for peace," he said.

Arab News reported that Al-Faisal "said Riyadh wanted to avoid conflict and would seek a peaceful outcome even if the UN sanctioned war." Asked if the United States had requested military facilities, Prince Saud said: "Concerning Iraq, it has not asked." He has already questioned remarks by U.S. defense officials who told Reuters last month that Riyadh had agreed to allow the United States to use its air bases and an important operations center in a possible war with Iraq.

Al-Riyadh daily reported that Al-Faisal "called for exerting all efforts to solve the Iraqi crisis through diplomatic and political channels. He also warned strongly that launching a military attack against Iraq could lead the whole region into an ambiguous future." Al-Faisal also said that "the [Saudi] kingdom was monitoring the conditions in the Gulf region with a great deal of concern, because it is interested in preventing a military confrontation rather than going along with it."

Prince Saud denied any knowledge of an initiative asking Saddam Hussein to step down as one of the political solutions, and added that military action to change the regime in Iraq would lead to civil wars with consequences affecting the whole region. He also expressed his optimism regarding recent statements made by President Bush, placing the war option as a last resort. He also commended Bush's earlier step to bring the Iraqi issue to the UN, rather than acting unilaterally.

Jewish Leader Warns Against Sharon's Course of National Suicide

In a major commentary in the International Herald Tribune of Jan. 7, Henry Siegman, now of the New York Council on Foreign Relations, and formerly a close associate of Nahum Goldman at the World Jewish Council, warned readers not to buy Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's sophistry about supporting a Palestinian state.

"Sharon's talk of Palestinian statehood is about as sincere as his stated determination to punish Cabinet members who refuse to cooperate fully with the Attorney General's investigation of a Likud vote-buying scandal, in which, according to Israeli police, the Prime Minister's son Omri is allegedly involved," he wrote. "Unfortunately, there is good reason to fear that the situation will only get worse if Sharon returns to power."

Siegman pointed out that Sharon's entire military and political career has been premised on the expansion of Jewish settlements in the occupied territories, so "as to make a Palestinian state a political and physical impossibility." As Sharon makes "moderate" campaign statements, Siegman reported, his son Omri has been telling Likud faithful "not to lose any sleep over his father's support for a Palestinian state." Omri has reportedly told the Likudniks that when you speak softly, you can carry a big stick, and that Sharon's strategy has paid off with the full reoccupation of the West Bank and Gaza, with little more than a whimper of protest from the U.S. government. And now Sharon has surrounded himself with a coterie of military and intelligence hardliners who share his commitment that there will be no return to "peace" talks until the Palestinians have been crushed and "until this defeat becomes deeply ingrained in their consciousness. All believe that it is only when Palestinians think and act like a defeated people that a political process can begin."

"Ironically," ended Siegman on a slightly hopeful note, "what hope there may be for a better outcome is provided by the Likud vote-buying scandal, which, according to the latest polls, has already cost the Likud 10 Knesset seats (down from an expected 41 seats to 31)" in national elections scheduled for Jan. 28. "Now that with the vote-buying scandal Israelis have found they, too, are the objects of Sharon's deceptions, they seem no longer amused. If the attrition in support for the Likud is not reversed, Sharon may not be able to form a new government without the Labor Party, whose conditions for joining his government—including an immediate halt to all settlement activity—might reverse the suicidal course that both Israel and the Palestinians now seem bent on." Siegman concluded that much hangs on whether Sharon's opponent, Labor Party candidate Amram Mitzna, proves to be the "man of integrity he claims to be."

Israeli Supreme Court Reinstates Arab Candidates, Party to Ballot

The Israeli Supreme Court on Jan. 9 overruled a corrupt decision by the Election Commission, and reinstated Arab Members of the Knesset (Parliament) Ahmed Tibi and Azmi Bishara to the ballot for the Jan. 28 elections. The Court also reinstated the Arab Balad Party, while permitting far-right activist Baruch Marzel, a member of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane's terrorist organization, to be on the ballot too.

The court also upheld the Election Commission's disqualification of Likud candidates Shaul Mofaz, the current Defense Minister, and radical rightist Moshe Feiglin. Ahmed Tibi told Israel's Army Radio that he was very happy with the Court's ruling, "blocking the anti-democratic avalanche of the right-wing." In light of the court decision, Shweki Khatib, chairman of the Arab Higher Monitoring Committee, called on Arab voters to turn out on Jan. 28 "and to change the government."

Goetterdaemerung for Ariel Sharon?

"Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad," certainly applies to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who was cut off mid-sentence after 13 minutes during a nationally televised press conference on Jan. 9 by none other than the Israeli Election Commission, for illegally using his Prime Minister position to "electioneer" on TV. Sharon was giving the press conference to defend himself against charges that he had broken election finance laws in previous elections.

Sharon, a career war criminal whose caretaker government has been characterized by an unprecedented number of assassinations of Palestinian political opponents under the guise of "fighting terrorism," and by the killing of dozens of Palestinian children by the Israel Defense Forces, is facing setbacks on all fronts:

*In Washington, the Israeli delegation, led by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's personal envoy, Dov Weisglass, was shunned after the delegation made a desperate pitch for a $12-14-billion bailout, of which $10 billion was to be U.S. loan guarantees. This came on the heels of several reprimands against Israel. The first was directed at the Israeli Election Commission's banning of Arab Members of Knesset from running for reelection (but see above for Israeli Supreme Court action overruling this); and the second, on Jan. 3, at Israeli demolition of homes of families whose members may include suicide bombers or militants. U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said, "We are further disturbed by reports that the demolition of homes in recent weeks has resulted in the deaths of two civilian occupants inside. We urge Israel to consider the consequences of actions such as these...." These concerns may be related to the Bush Administration's tabling of Israel's bailout request.

*Israel is accusing Britain of an alleged "covert arms embargo," which London denies. Israeli claims that Britain is refusing to allow the export of defense items, including many spare parts, that Israel needs for self-defense against terrorists, and against Iraq. "This is a major cloud in our bilateral relations with Britain," said Victor Harel, a senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official, on Jan. 3. British officials deny imposing any kind of boycott, but a Foreign Office spokesman told the London Times, "We won't export anything that could be used for external aggression or internal repression." Scrutiny is necessary because Israel had provided false assurances about the non-use of British equipment in the occupied territories.

*On Jan. 7, both Prime Minister Tony Blair and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell protested the Israeli ban on Palestinian delegates to the "roadmap" meeting in London that would discuss the "Quartet" (U.S., European Union, Russia, and the UN) plan for peace settlement, and a Palestinian state. Sharon and his Foreign Minister Netanyahu ignored the protests.

Polls report that Sharon's Likud slate will lose another seven to nine seats in Parliament Jan. 28, with the latest figure putting the Likud's total at 24 seats. There is a growing drumbeat for Sharon to resign.

Secret UN Report Warns of 500,000 Iraqi Casualties

The military offensive pushed by the Anglo-American utopian faction would create 500,000 Iraqi casualties and 1 million refugees, and put 10 million at risk, says a secret 13-page "contingency plan" prepared by a senior United Nations task force last month, which was obtained by the UN office of the Mennonite religious group, and is now posted on the Web site of the Cambridge University student advocacy group, Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. "The bulk of the population is now totally dependent on the government of Iraq for a majority, if not all, of their basic needs," the document states. "Unlike the situation in 1991, they have no way of coping if they cannot access them...."

As many as half a million Iraqis would require medical treatment, the report states, as a result of a war, including up to 400,000 wounded as an indirect result of the devastation that would be brought upon the country. The report assumes that a war would shut off Iraqi oil production, and that the electricity, railway, and road systems would be significantly damaged. The UN had previously estimated that up to 9.5 million of Iraq's 26.5 million population could need food aid to survive, were a war to start. "Furthermore, the outbreak of diseases in epidemic, if not pandemic, proportions is likely," the report states, referencing cholera and dysentery as two that thrive in economically devastated conditions.

The report estimates that more than 900,000 refugees could be expected to flee to Iran, and 50,000 more would go to Saudi Arabia, joining the 130,000 refugees already living in UN-supervised camps there.

U.S. Training of Iraqi Exiles a Violation of Law

Iraq has protested that the U.S. training of "mercenaries" to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is a violation of UN guarantees of sovereignty and is an act of aggression. The charges were made in a letter from Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri that was delivered to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.

Meanwhile, on Jan. 6, the New York Times reported that the Iraqi opposition is so divided, that the Bush Administration has backed away from the demand—associated with the radical neo-conservatives—to create a "provisional government" from the Iraqi opposition. The Times reports: "After long debate, especially between the Pentagon and the State Department, the White House has rejected for now the idea of creating a provisional government before any invasion." National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, they report, "stepped in, as one senior aide said, to 'make sure there was not a public food fight on this one.' " The Times added, "Senior civilian officials in the Pentagon and some advisers to Vice President Dick Cheney argued for the creation of a provisional government, even before Baghdad falls." Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld supported this, while the opponents, "mainly in the State Department and the CIA, say the Iraqi exiles have no legitimacy among the Iraqi people."

A meeting that was supposed to be held on Jan. 15 of the "united" exile movement inside the Kurdish area of Iraq, has been cancelled—indefinitely.

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