In this issue:

Seoul NSC Chief Adopts 'Economy First' Approach Advocated by LaRouche

Philippines President's Gift to Bush: 50 Dead MILF

Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri Declared Martial Law for Aceh, Signed Decree for War

Presidents Bush and Roh Hold Summit in Washington

International Help on North Korean Nuclear Reactors Continuing

Afghanistan Is Far From Stable, Says IISS

Historic India/Pakistan Talks Draw Near

Record Growth in China-India Trade

Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee Could Visit China as Early as June

Germany's Chancellor Schroeder at Ho Chi Minh's Tomb

From Volume 2, Issue Number 20 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published May 20, 2003
Asia News Digest

Seoul NSC Chief Adopts 'Economy First' Approach Advocated by LaRouche

In his May 13 op-ed in the International Herald Tribune, "Engagement with the North: Step by Step to One Korea," Dr. Ra Jong-yil, National Security Adviser to South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, writes that Seoul should promote "economic engagement" with Pyongyang now—and worry about political agreements later, even despite North Korea's nuclear program. This is a formulation starting to come close to Lyndon LaRouche's "Six Powers" proposal: that the regional Eurasian powers build up North Korea and the region's economy with the Silk Road immediately, without waiting for far-flung disarmament and other difficult, paper-only political treaties.

"Even in the light of North Korea's recent claim to possess nuclear weapons, the South Korean administration remains convinced that engagement through our 'policy of peace and prosperity'—a continuation and expansion of the 'Sunshine Policy' of President Kim Dae Jung—is the proper approach," Ra begins. "The principle of the engagement policy is simple: to move unilaterally toward reconciliation with North Korea, gradually expanding the areas of common concern until enough trust has been built up to finally establish institutions leading to eventual unification.

"This political approach deviates sharply from that prevalent last century," Ra points out, making clear his agreement with LaRouche. "In place of pursuing a grand agenda in the name of national glory or ideology, rather the policy of engagement is aimed at addressing the basic necessities: better food, medical care, education and a wider range of choices for everyone.... We want to avoid the fate of great political achievements that were initially welcomed with enthusiasm but did little to improve the conditions of life and instead led to enormous suffering and misery.

"Indeed, the first stage of engagement has succeeded in melting away the thick layer of ice left over from the Cold War. There have been dramatic increases in the number of contacts between North and South. North Korean visitors to the South reached 1,052 in 2002. Altogether, 510,000 South Korean tourists went to Diamond Mountain in North Korea between 1998-2003.

"Considering the past half-century of tragic confrontation between two sides locked in a zero-sum game of conflict, the breakthrough has been remarkable.... There is remarkable consensus in the international community that it is not desirable for North Korea to develop weapons of mass destruction and that this problem should be dealt with peacefully and diplomatically. This basic consensus, I believe, is due in part to the achievements of the 'Sunshine Policy.' It is a confirmation that engagement remains the best path forward."

Philippines President's Gift to Bush: 50 Dead MILF

The Philippines military killed more than 50 Muslim separatist guerrillas in a major anti-terrorist operation in the southern Philippines involving 3,000 troops, according to a senior military official, reports Agence France Presse on May 18. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo had issued the order for "selective aerial and artillery attacks to dislodge embedded [sic] terrorist cells," hours before departing for a state visit to Washington, which included a state dinner May 19 at the White House—only the third state dinner President Bush has hosted in his tenure so far.

The military fired at least 135 artillery rounds on Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) positions in two areas of Mindanao island over the past 24 hours, killing an estimated "50 or more" MILF rebels, regional military chief Major General Roy Kyamco said, although no bodies have been recovered. The MILF denied sustaining casualties in the operations, but claimed to have killed three soldiers in a separate clash May 17.

Macapagal Arroyo"s Chief of Staff Rigoberto Tiglao offered: "It's irrelevant now if it's MILF or Abu Sayyaf. The military have been ordered to go after any [emphasis added] armed groups which could be, or have been identified as having undertaken terror attacks or planning to have these attacks." Covering all bases, he warned that communist guerrillas would also be targetted "if they are seen, if they are spotted in, or are suspected of being part of these terrorist attacks."

Communist Party spokesman Gregorio Rosal denounced the offensive as "a direct attack against Moro communities by a lackey and militarist who now wants to make a fawning gift and ask for more U.S. troops and more aid as she pays court to her master."

Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri Declared Martial Law for Aceh, Signed Decree for War

The failure of last-minute talks in Japan over the weekend, where the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) refused Indonesian government demands that it renounce the goal of independence, and negotiate within the framework of autonomy "within the unitary state of Indonesia," led to the issuing of the Presidential decree as of midnight Sunday night, May 18. The government has already positioned military forces, planes, warships, and supplies in the region in preparation for war, although they did not say when operations will commence.

Martial Law will initially last for six months.

GAM spokesman Sofyan Daewood told AFP that the GAM commander Muzakkir Manaf had ordered all GAM fighters on alert, and called for a general strike on Monday, May 19. He also warned industries in the region, especially ExxonMobil and the natural gas facilities in Arun, to shut down, but said they would not attack the facilities.

Presidents Bush and Roh Hold Summit in Washington

South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun and President Bush met on May 14 in Washington, releasing a generally optimistic joint statement. Reports to EIR indicated that a luncheon meeting with Dick Cheney was "rough," but the press meeting held in the Rose Garden by Bush and Roh spoke of progress in negotiations regarding North Korea. Repeating the two standard public positions—that the Korean Peninsula must be nuclear-free, and that the crisis will be solved peacefully—Bush said that "we're making good progress toward achieving that peaceful resolution."

The joint statement welcomed China's role in facilitating talks, and called for South Korea and Japan to participate in subsequent talks, while adding that "Russia and other nations can also play a constructive role."

The South Korean interpretation of the May 14 joint statement is that the U.S. will not remove its troops from the North Korean border until the current crisis is over. (Defense Secretary Rumsfeld's threat to move the U.S. troops away from the border was considered by the South to be preparation for a possible U.S. unilateral strike against the North's nuclear facilities, and preparation for the expected retaliation.)

Lt. General Cha Young-Koo, Deputy Minister of Defense for Policy, said that the joint statement "meant that [the U.S.] will take more time to resolve the matter on the relocation of the infantry division, in view of the North's nuclear threats and other regional issues."

The joint statement asserted that the relocation "should be pursued, taking careful account of the political, economic and security situation on the Peninsula and in Northeast Asia." While this is vague, Gen. Cha said that Bush made the same point in his own statement by referring to a U.S. commitment to a "robust forward defense."

International Help on North Korean Nuclear Reactors Continuing

The North Korean nuclear reactors which the U.S., South Korea, and Japan agreed to build as part of the 1994 General Framework accord, are still under construction. The project to help North Korea build two nuclear reactors, in exchange for closing down a reactor project considered more susceptible to weapons development, is proceeding, despite all the other problems over Korean nuclear weapons development.

South Korean officials say the fact that the project is still alive shows that the 1994 non-proliferation accord is salvageable, despite the U.S. cut-off of the oil shipments which were part of the deal. "No one has officially said the deal was dead, and work on the reactor project is ongoing," said Kim Jong-ro, a spokesman at Seoul's Unification Ministry. There are 605 South Koreans, 353 Uzbeks, and 99 North Koreans working to build two light-water reactors, Kim said. They are being constructed by the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), made up of the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and the European Union.

Seoul has spent $850 million on the reactors as of last month; it agreed to pay for most of the $4.6-billion project. The Japanese Foreign Ministry also confirmed the project was continuing. News of the ongoing construction came as South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun met with President Bush in Washington to discuss the nuclear dispute.

Afghanistan Is Far From Stable, Says IISS

London's International Institute of Strategic Studies has just released its International Strategic Survey 2002/3, in which it paints a gloomy picture of political stagnation in Afghanistan, with warlords back in control, and a vibrant opium economy taking off in the absence of major economic reconstruction. IISS writes that U.S. officials "appeared to believe that warlord rule was unfortunate, but inevitable under the circumstances, and that it was better than anarchy."

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has never challenged the warlords' role as governors or corps commanders, but government officials said May 12 that he would try to seize the initiative in lawless provinces by sacking regional officials who defy his rule. IISS claims Russia has formed ties with Vice President and Defense Minister Mohammad Qasim Fahim, leader of the mainly Tajik clique in the government. Iran allegedly has close ties to Ismail Khan, a Tajik leader in western Herat province, while India is also cultivating ties with Fahim.

IISS's report raises four issues for Afghanistan's future: How long will the Pashtuns accept second-class status under Fahim before rebelling? Given his inability to curb Fahim, how long will Karzai retain his legitimacy? How long will the central government maintain credibility unless it curbs the warlords? How long will Pakistan refrain from intervening while Russia, Iran, and India secure positions?

Historic India/Pakistan Talks Draw Near

India has a "full road map" prepared for talks with Pakistan, said Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha on May 12. "Every step is clear in our mind. There is no confusion in the government of India and we will proceed according to that plan," Sinha said on New Delhi Television network. "As far as we are concerned in India, we have very, very clearly worked out the entire road map." Sinha continued, "The final thing is to be able to reach an understanding on all the identified issues ... so that there is a successful summit and all this understanding could be reduced to whatever document we want to produce." He gave no details.

Pakistani Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed said that Islamabad also has plans. Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali "has made his own road map, which will begin from small issues and [move] to the solution of Kashmir," he told the Times of India. He said talks could begin as early as next month.

Record Growth in China-India Trade

Bilateral trade between India and China during the first quarter of 2003 grew by 77.8% on the year, to $1.66 billion, according to the latest Chinese customs figures. This is a significant step towards the goal which then-Prime Minister Zhu Rongji had set when he visited India in January 2002, when he called for joint trade, then worth just $3 billion a year, to reach $10 billion as soon as possible. In 2002, bilateral trade was worth a record $4.92 billion; during the first quarter of 2002 it was at $938.10 million.

Indian exports to China surged by 119.2% in March alone, to $947 million for the whole first quarter. Also, the trade balance has reversed. There had been nervousness in India that Chinese goods were "flooding" India; now the trade balance is in India's favor with a record $224 million: Last year it was $74.88 million in China's favor. Chinese exports to India also rose, by a solid 42.5% to $722.68 million.

India's main exports to China include iron and steel, ores, plastics, organic chemicals, cotton, and mineral fuels. Indian exports of iron and steel during the first quarter this year rose by an astonishing 2,279%, to $293.84 million, compared to $12.34 million last year!

Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee Could Visit China as Early as June

Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes, at a defense industry conference in New Delhi on May 12, said, "The Prime Minister will go there [to China] next month. The fact is that on the borders there has been complete peace and tranquility." He also noted the growth of trade between the two countries. Fernandes said that his visit to China in April had shown him that both nations want peace, and that the Chinese leaders had told him, that both sides must end the frostiness of their relations of recent years and build for the future. Prime Minister Vajpayee's office has not confirmed a date for the visit to China.

Germany's Chancellor Schroeder at Ho Chi Minh's Tomb

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder laid a wreath at the state tomb of Ho Chi Minh, the father of post-colonial Vietnam, in Hanoi last week. Schroeder was in Vietnam on May 15 as the fourth station on his Asia tour, following stops in Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia (see EUROPEAN DIGEST for more details).

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