In this issue:

Putin Meets With Military Leadership

Russia Reviews Military Strategy

No Commitment of Russian Troops for Iraq

Putin Surprises Bush Over Afghanistan

France, Russia 'Not Satisfied' by Draft Resolution on Iraq

French and German Government Leaders to Moscow

New Container Terminal For North-South Eurasian Corridor

China and Russia Enhance Border Cooperation

Congress of Religions Held in Kazakstan

Russia Needs More Time Before Ratifying Kyoto Protocol

From Volume 2, Issue Number 40 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Oct. 7, 2003
Russia and Central Asia News Digest

Putin Meets With Military Leadership

Back in Russia after his trip to the United Nations General Assembly and two-day summit with President George W. Bush, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a session Oct. 2 with the top leadership of Russia's Armed Forces, on their tasks in the current strategic situation. In addition to the ongoing discussion of measures for modernization of the Armed Forces (which include rationalization measures and meeting the manpower challenge, as well as armaments matters), Putin in remarks to the session repeatedly emphasized the need to meet new types of threats, and to conduct "constant military and strategic analysis of the situation."

Putin strongly endorsed the report given by Minister of Defense Sergei Ivanov. He also, in concluding remarks, underscored the still powerful Russian strategic nuclear missile forces—"the main foundation of Russia's national security"—emphasizing that it comprises dozens of missiles with, as Chief of Staff Kvashnin confirmed, "hundreds of nuclear warheads." Putin said, "These missiles were produced not yesterday and not today, but in a certain sense they are new products. They still have a quite significant useful lifespan. And their combat capabilities, including overcoming any anti-missile defense systems, are unrivalled."

As during his visit to the Federal Nuclear Center weapons lab at Sarov, last summer, Putin went on to stress the need "to work in a planned fashion, without big leaps, but persisently and in a systematic way, on creating new models of 21st Century weapons." He said that he would personally be on top of the implementation of the work planned in this regard, including in "quite sensitive areas" of anti-missile defense and other projects, which he had also discussed with President Bush at Camp David.

Russia Reviews Military Strategy

Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov's report to the Oct. 2 meeting of the Russian military leadership with President Putin, was based on a new Ministry of Defense document, "Open Military Doctrine for Modernization of the Armed Forces," released at the meeting.

Izvestia of Oct. 3 reported on the document, under the headline "Russia Is Prepared To Change Its Nuclear Strategy." The newspaper highlighted this quotation from the paper: "Russia is attentively following the process of NATO's transformation, and counts on the removal of direct and oblique anti-Russian components from both the military planning and the political declarations of NATO members. If, however, NATO continues to exist as a military alliance with the offensive military doctrine it has today, this will require a fundamental reshaping of Russian military planning and of the principles of development of the Russian Armed Forces, including a change in Russian nuclear strategy." One measure under consideration, according to the document, would be "a limited combat utilization of individual components of the strategic deterrent forces" (i.e., the nuclear arsenal) as an element of national military strategy. The strategic deterrent remains committed "to preventing any type of forcible pressure and aggression against Russia or its allies," and is "based on the capability of inflicting retaliatory damage, on a scale that would call into question the achievement of the goals of the possible aggression."

In its coverage, the Oct. 3 Nezavisimaya Gazeta stressed a different aspect, under the headline "A Preemptive Strike From Ivanov." Here, the point is to assert that Russia reserves certain prerogatives. The defense minister is quoted: "Current external threats require the Armed Forces to perform various types of missions in various regions of the world. We do not absolutely exclude the preemptive use of force, if required by the interests of Russia or its obligations to allies." Relevant threats to Russian interests would include "interference in the internal affairs of the Russian Federation by foreign nations, or organizations supported by foreign nations," as well as "instability in countries adjacent [to Russia], born of the weakness of their central governments."

No Commitment of Russian Troops for Iraq

Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin emerged from their summit at Camp David Sept. 27 as friendly as ever, but no closer to agreement on certain issues relating to Iraq. Putin raised the Iraq issue, first, when the two appeared before reporters, saying that both he and Bush wanted to see a free and democratic Iraq, and that both the governing council and the UN should play a important role in solving the problems faced by the Iraqi people. As for any further Russian commitment of resources to Iraq, Putin said Russia is interested in participating in the normalization of Iraq "as soon as possible," but "The degree and extent and level of Russia's participation in the restoration of Iraq will be determined after we know the parameters of the resolution—of the new [UN] resolution on Iraq."

The other major issue they discussed with reporters was nuclear weapons in Iran and North Korea. Putin said that Russia "believes that ensuring the nuclear non-proliferation regime should be accompanied by extending to North Korea guarantees in this sphere of security." On Iran, he said, "It is our conviction that we shall give a clear but respectful signal to Iran about the necessity to continue to expand its cooperation with IAEA."

Putin Surprises Bush Over Afghanistan

During the Camp David talks of Sept. 27, AFP reported, President Putin disclosed that Moscow had been approached by unnamed entities, offering Russia assistance to fight U.S. troops in Afghanistan; this was allegedly disclosed by a senior U.S. official on Sept. 29. According to this report, Putin allegedly told President Bush that Russia's response to the offer might have been different, had Putin not previously developed a close personal friendship with Bush. Putin is said to have told Bush, "When counter-terrorist operations began in Afghanistan, we were approached by people through several channels. We were approached by people who intended to fight against Americans in Afghanistan." He offered no further identification of those who made the approach nor why he waited until now to disclose it. U.S. Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow added that such claims had not previously come up between the two leaders, nor with Bush's Administration.

France, Russia 'Not Satisfied' by Draft Resolution on Iraq

Speaking to reporters at the World Economic Forum in Moscow on Oct. 3, Russian President Putin said of the latest draft resolution on Iraq: "We are not satisfied with the draft by our American partners, though they are trying to find a compromise.... I believe that if we are guided by these principles, we can expect to find such a compromise." Namely, the UN Security Council Resolution "must give the international community greater responsibility for taking part in the rebirth of Iraq.... In this way, I believe we can achieve serious progress in the reconstruction of the country."

Putin went on at some length about how the Iraqis would place "greater trust in its traditional [economic] allies" than the coalition forces.

French Foreign Ministry spokesman Herve Ladsous said of the U.S. resolution on Iraq that: "Our first impression is ... this revised project does not incorporate the change in approach that we are advocating."

French and German Government Leaders to Moscow

French Prime Minister Jean Pierre Raffarin and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder will be in Russia at the same time. Schroeder will confer with President Vladimir Putin in Yekaterinburg, Oct. 8-9, on subjects ranging from the crisis spots in the Mideast, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, to bilateral issues of economic cooperation and to foreign affairs cooperation in the framework of the United Nations. Raffarin will be in Moscow, to confer with Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, primarily on perspectives for enhanced economic and technological cooperation. They will attend the FranceTech exibit of 150 French firms, in Moscow Oct. 7-10. Prominent at this exhibit will be aviation and space technology, energy technology, construction, automotives, medical systems.

New Container Terminal For North-South Eurasian Corridor

Russia has opened its first container terminal on the Caspian Sea, to create a cargo "hub" for trade with India and other countries on the North-South Eurasian Transport Corridor, Press Trust of India reported Oct. 2. The facility, located in the Volga delta region of Astrakhan, will be capable of handling 500,000 metric tons of cargo every year. It will function in the framework of the North-South Corridor, a set of agreements reached over the past three years among Russia, India, and Iran, to speed up transport. Other agreements have to do with easing customs and other matters; now, some new infrastructure is also being built.

The corridor will shorten shipping time: Indian goods sent on this route, will reach Europe in 15-23 days, making the shipping 40% cheaper than using the Suez Canal, which takes 35-40 days. Russia is now shipping some heavy equipment for the Kudankulam nuclear power plant, which it is helping India build in Tamil Nadu, via the North-South corridor.

At the Third International Conference on Eurasian Transport, held in St. Petersburg in September, Belarus and Kazakstan joined the North-South corridor project. The Russian Transport Ministry reports that Tajikistan, Armenia, Syria, and Oman are "close" to joining.

China and Russia Enhance Border Cooperation

Governor Zhang Zuoji of China's Heilongjiang Province has signed agreements on economic cooperation, with the Russian border provinces of Chinta, Amur, the Jewish Automonous District, and Khabarovsk and Primorsky Territories, Xinhua reported Oct. 2, and will be visiting these regions later this year. The meetings are part of strategic plans for Russia to develop its Far East—which has been devastated since the collapse of the Soviet Union—and for China to revive its formerly industrial northeast. Trade between Heilongjiang and eastern Russia was worth US$2.3 billion in 2002, or 20% of total China-Russia trade.

Congress of Religions Held in Kazakstan

The first-ever Congress of World and Traditional Religions was held in Astana, Kazakstan, on Sept. 23-24. Seventeen delegations participated, representing the most important world religions: Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Buddhism, Taoism, Shintoism, and the Anglican churches, as well as special guests, and respresentatives of international organizations, such as the UNO, OSCE, UNESCO and UNICEF.

Emphasizing the importance of the forum and its significance for peace in the world, were messages of greetings from Pope John Paul II, the Patriarch of Moscow and all Russia Alexei II, Archbishop of Canterbury Rowen Willams, and Patriarch of Constantinople Bartolomei. Greetings from political figures came from UN General Secretary Kofi Anan, U.S. President G. Bush, Russian President V. Putin, Egyptian President H. Mubarak, French President J. Chirac, Italian Prime Minister S. Berlusconi, as well as M. Gorbachov, M. Thatcher, and H.-D. Genscher. All the messages stressed the role of religion; however, some said, religion is often abused by "dark forces"; thus, the need for dialogue. The Astana conference aimed to be a model, a bridge among religions. There, where methods of politics fail, the role of religion remains the only means for reconciliation and hope.

This is the message which Kazakstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev delivered to the conference. Nazarbayev said he was convinced that the time had come to say, that it is inadmissible to give a political or ideological color to religious differences. This idea was supported by the participants and expressed in a declaration, issued by the meeting. The high point of Congress was the joint prayer of all confessions, which was held at the foot of the "Baiterek" monument, a symbol of the unity of peoples, cultures, and religions.

Russia Needs More Time Before Ratifying Kyoto Protocol

President Vladimir Putin backed away from the promise to quickly ratify the Kyoto Protocol on so-called climate change, at an International Conference on Climate Change held in Moscow, on Sept. 29. In his prepared speech, he stated that Russia needs more time to study the science of climate change. He also concluded his remarks with this comment: "In Russia, you can often hear, either in joke or seriously, that Russia is a northern country. If it were two or three degrees warmer, this would be no big deal. Maybe it would even be a good thing—we would spend less money on coats and other warm items."

Also at the same conference were some of Putin's top economic aides, like Yuri Israel, who is a member of the Russia Academy of Sciences and Director of the Moscow-based Institute of Global Climatic and Environmental Studies. Israel stated, "We cannot say precisely what impact man-caused factors are having on climate changes, and there is no precise damage evaluation of tentative global warming."

Nikolai Tonkov, a member of the Russian Union of Industrialist and Entrepreneurs, stated, "To ratify the Kyoto Protocol would negatively affect [Russia's] economic growth and endanger the long-term goal of increasing gross domestic product." He further commented,"The Kyoto Protocol is a very dubious document based on a series of scientific assumptions, which even scientific circles do not always accept."

Andrei Illarinov, adviser to President Putin on economic issues, stated that the science of climate change produces more questions than answers. One example he gave was that in the 20th Century, the average temperature rose 0.6 degrees. At the same time, observations show that this is often not linked with the growth of production. For instance, in the 1940s-1970s, when a sharp growth in production was under way in the whole world, the average temperature on the Earth dropped by 0.2 degrees. But in the beginning of the 1920s when the world economy was going through a slump, temperature went up. He also stated, "In particular, according to scientific research, in the past 400,000 years a dramatic rise in temperature on Earth occurred every 100,000 years, and this was not in the least linked to man's activity."

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