Asia News Digest
Develop Nuclear Energy and 'Shed Your Baggage of the Past'
Addressing a debate at the United Nations General Assembly on Nov. 6, on a report published by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), India's representative and a Member of the Indian Parliament, B. Mahtab, said that it is time for the industrialized nations to "shed the baggage inherited from the past," and allow a flow of equipment and related technologies for enhancement of peaceful use of nuclear energy in the interest of people of developing countries.
Mahtab pointed out that the growth of nuclear energy in the developing countries, particularly in the nations with fast-growing economies and a large population, should be a matter of global interest, in view of its potential to protect the earth from irreversible climatic changes. He also said: "Mindless controls without addressing the core issue of meeting development aspirations of the needy, do not help the situation."
Meanwhile, the Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev, in an interview with the Indian daily The Hindu, said on Nov. 3 that, "there is a pressing need to review the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and work out a special arrangement for India to allow it to cooperate with other countries in the nuclear field." Rumyantsev said Russia is trying to get the NSG to treat India as a special case, because it had indigenously developed its nuclear-weapons technologies, rather than receiving them from another country. The Russian Minister also pointed out that India has a flawless record on nuclear non-proliferation, and has no alternative to nuclear power for meeting its growing energy needs.
In the United States as well, there are talks about cooperation with India in the field of civilian nuclear-reactor safety. With over 100 reactors operating over many years in the United States, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has built up a formidable library of safety-related issues, modes of equipment malfunction, and the required operator intervention. Indians point out that, if the Indian safety regulators have access to this information, it would be of significant help.
Sri Lankan Crisis Far From Being Over
On Nov. 7, Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga, following her 20-minute telephone conversation with the Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, lifted the state of emergency she had announced two days earlier. She had imposed the state emergency 24 hours after sacking three cabinet ministers who belonged to the United National Party (UNP)-led Ranil Wickremesinghe government. Her decision to sack the ministers followed the proposals put forward by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) for an "Interim Self-Governing Authority" (ISGA) for the merged northeast provinces of Sri Lanka. The LTTE and Colombo are engaged in Norwegian-brokered talks to resolve the two-decades-old ethnic violence between the Tamils and Sinhalas of Sri Lanka. The talks were taking place in a state of ceasefire, which has been in effect since February 2002.
President Kumaratunga had imposed the state of emergency at a time when the country's Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, was in Washington meeting the U.S. President George W. Bush. The main agenda in that meeting was the resolution of ethnic hostilities and enhancement of trade and commerce between the two countries. Earlier, Wickremesinghe had met with his Indian and Japanese counterparts, and the EU chief, to discuss the same agenda.
What triggered President Kumaratunga to act abruptly was the nature of the LTTE proposal. The proposal demanded full control of marine and offshore installations and resources adjacent to the northeast, and the power to regulate access to ports in the region. It also said that once the ISGA get set up, disputes between the ISGA authority and the Sri Lankan government, if not resolved through discussions or Norwegian facilitation, should be referred to the International Court of Justice or international arbitration.
In other words, as President Kumaratunga read it, and New Delhi agreed with her in private, the implications of the LTTE proposals are that they are clearly the first step towards the creation of a separate sovereign territorial entity in Sri Lanka. These proposals explicitly made no reference to the jurisdiction of the Sri Lankan Supreme Court. In essence, the proposals subvert the constitution of Sri Lanka. Even Wickremesinghe's UNP stated that the LTTE proposals went far beyond a reasonable arrangement for provisional autonomy and self-government for the Tamil-majority areas.
In addition, the Sri Lankan authorities, including the Prime Minister, are aware that the period of ceasefire has been utilized by the LTTE to enhance its military and political manpower, to buy additional military supplies, and to deploy LTTE forces in strategically dominating positions in the Tamil-majority areas.
U.S. Road-Map on Afghanistan Is in Trouble
The U.S. plan to split the Taliban has run into foul weather. The main hope of the Americans, and the Afghan Interim President Hamid Karzai, in this plan, was the former Taliban Foreign Minister Mullah Wakil Ahmad Muttawakil. Muttawakil had surrendered to the Americans in February 2002, and was kept in custody at a U.S. military base near Kabul.
During these 20 months, Muttawakil was in dialogue with President Karzai and had sent emissaries to various Taliban leaders, urging them to leave the fold of the Taliban supremo Mullah Mohammad Omar. These Pushtun-Taliban leaders were urged by Muttawakil to help the present regime.
The American road-map on Afghanistan consists of a number of sequential steps. First, the drafting of a new Afghan constitution. This constitution would then be endorsed and adopted by a Council of Elders. The third step was the holding of general elections in the summer of 2004. Following the general elections, and ostensible establishment of "democracy," the Bush Administration would bring some of the 11,000 troops stationed in Afghanistan back home, to convince the Americans that all their boys would be home soon. The whole plan centers around making conditions "favorable" for the re-election of President Bush.
However, one ingredient missing in all this, is the participation of the Pushtuns, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan. Having basically identified all Pushtuns as Taliban, the United States now does not have Pushtuns to represent the community. It is for this reason that Muttawakil was cajoled for 20 months, and was finally released on Nov. 5.
However, Muttawakil has developed cold feet. Following his release, he urged the Karzai government to find him asylum in Qatar. Reports indicate that Muttawakil has already declined a Cabinet post offered by President Karzai. Word is going around that Mullah Mohammad Omar has called for Muttawakil's assassination.
Meanwhile, Afghan Minister Jalali told the media on Nov. 7 that a group of al-Qaeda Arabs and Chechens, in coordination with the anti-Kabul, anti-U.S. Pushtun leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, has opened a new front against the U.S. and Afghan forces along the Afghan-Pakistan borders. Their objective is to further harass the U.S. forces and destroy the road-map.
Growing Cooperation Between China and India
One of the nodal points in the ongoing improvement of China-India relations will be their first-ever joint naval exercise.
Beginning on Nov. 14, the two nations' navies will deploy "frontline warships" as well as aircraft and helicopters, off the port of Shanghai, China's largest, for the exercises. The Indian naval task force would be comprised of three warshipsINS Ranjit, a Russian guided-missile destroyer; INS Kulish, a guided-missile Corvette; and the INS Jyoti, a replenishment tanker.
The exercises are important for ensuring safe maritime trade in a region where the much-traversed South China Sea and Malacca Straits are plagued with modern day 'high-tech' piracy.
Also in the news are the two-day (Nov. 6-7) China-India-Russia talks involving academics and eminent persons, which just concluded in New Delhi. The discussions took place in light of the historic visit of the Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee to China last June. Following the trip, the Indian Prime Minister and the Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, also met at Bali, and pledged further improvement in India-China relations. Subsequently, India and China also met to discuss the disputed border along the Himalayas. The discussions on border dispute, for the first time, took place at a very high level.
The improvement in India-China relations centers around a new "Look East" policy adopted by New Delhi. India's External Affairs Minister, Yashwant Sinha, told the Press Trust of India on Nov. 5 that India has entered "Phase-II of our 'Look East' policy, which is both more comprehensive in its coverage, territorially and materially." Sinha said India has now extended the policy to include China, Japan, and Korea.
Thailand Readies Itself To Deal with the Market Bubble
The Thai stock market, with a full 30% of its trades coming from day trading (called "net settlement" trading in Thailand), has been reaching new records daily. This has forced the hand of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
During his meeting on Nov. 5 with the SET (Stock Exchange Thailand) directors and regulators, the Thai Prime Minister said they must do whatever necessary to deal with market speculation, "without having to worry about the impact on a certain group of investors." A month ago, a move to stop trading the most volatile stocks was prevented under heavy international pressure.
Subsequently, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) officials were told by the BoT Governor Pridiyathorn Devakula, to monitor the movement of some "hot stocks." Pridiyathorn pointed out that he was not concerned about the overall market, which had traded reasonably in terms of price/earnings ratio.
Pridyathorn said the central bank had not seen any signs of a bubble in the property sector, which it had been monitoring closely. In the bourse itself, the current price to earnings ratio is 10:5, compared to 15:18 in other markets. According to the central bank governor, the P/E ratio indicates that the stock prices are not too expensive, and most listed companies have performed very well.
But there is no denial that the Thais are worried about the market growth. SET chairman Vijit Supinit said he is ready to take all necessary measures to cool the market down if it is seen to have overheated. "We are keeping a close watch on the market. We are ready to step in to guard the market if it faces overheating," said Vijit. To further allay fears, the SET president Kittiratt Na Ranong told the Bangkok daily The Nation on Nov. 5:, "The current market rally is still in line with improved economic fundamentals."
Last week, during a luncheon speech at the Japanese Chamber of Commerce, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was asked whether he was concerned about a possible stock-market bubble. Shinawatra said that, insofar as the stock market did not rise beyond a certain level, there was fundamental support for the Thai market.
Region Recognizes Myanmar's Importance
The five-day (Nov. 3-7) visit to Myanmar by Indian Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat is a clear indicator that India recognizes the importance of opening up strong economic and infrastructural ties with Myanmar. Invited by Myanmar's Army Chief Maung Aye, a member of the military triumvirate that rules Myanmar, Shekhawat is the highest ranking Indian leader to visit Myanmar in 16 years. Besides Gen. Maung Aye, the Indian Vice President also met the ministers of foreign affairs, home affairs, and rail transport. During his visit, Shekhawat announced extension of a $57 million loan to Myanmar to modernize the Yangon-Mandalay railroads.
Relations between India and Myanmar have improved rapidly since 1988 when, following a student uprising, New Delhi had provided sanctuary to the Myanmarese students who fled the country. This had vitiated the relationship between the two countries. In recent months, India has shown keen interest to open up closer economic and cultural relations with southeast Asian countries.
Following several high-level visits, it is evident that India and Myanmar has come closer together. Official bilateral trade is valued at more than $400 million in the fiscal year 2003. The unofficial trade between the two countries through the porous border is reportedly much higher. Nonetheless, both sides hope to boost the official trade figures to $1 billion by 2006.
The Indian initiative is triggered by increasing efforts by Thailand to integrate Myanmar into the region. Thailand, keen to develop much larger trade with both China and India, recognizes the importance of Myanmar, which sits on the crossroads between these large nations. Bangkok recognizes that unless Yangon is physically integrated through an adequate infrastructure, Thailand's potential to optimize its trade with India and China would remain unexploited.
It is for this reason the Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has announced that he would soon meet the Myanmarese Prime Minister, Khin Nyunt. Following the meeting, it is expected that Thailand will offer Myanmar about $50 million in the form of aid, and a low-interest loan to support the construction of transportation links between the two countries. Thai Deputy Prime Minister Korn Dabbaransi indicated on Nov. 4 that the grant will fund construction of an 18-kilometer stretch linking the Thai border town of Mae Sot and the Myanmarese town of Myawaddy.
Korn said another $445 million will be granted in the form of a low-interest loan to Myanmar. Thailand wants to develop jointly with Myanmar, plantations for corn, beans, potatoes, and bamboo shoots. In addition, Thailand has agreed in principle to support a study on the feasibility of developing a deep-sea port at Myanmar's Tavoy.
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