In this issue:

India and China Complete Historic Naval Exercise

Sri Lankan Crisis Continues

Putin And Vajpayee Critical Of U.S. Sincerity In Fighting Terrorism

Chaos In The Philippines

Afghan Ups Pressure On Pakistan As Taliban Gains

Thailand Hosts "Pagan" Pact With Indochina Neighbors

Mahathir Warns of War On Syria And Iran

From Volume 2, Issue Number 46 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Nov. 18, 2003
Asia News Digest

India and China Complete Historic Naval Exercise

As a definite step towards developing the much-discussed Asian Security, the two most populous nations in the world—China and India—conducted their first-ever joint naval exercises off Shanghai's coast on Nov. 14.

Three Indian ships—a guided-missile destroyer, a guided-missile corvette, and a supply tanker—arrived in Shanghai on Nov. 10, and remained docked off the Bund, Shanghai's riverfront financial district.

The naval exercise has been hailed as a major development in the improving economic and political relations between the two Asian giants. The naval exercise is of particular significance because of the intensity of interactions and high-level meetings in recent months, particularly following Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's visit to China in September. Very high level negotiators met last month to discuss the disputed boundaries between China and India.

"We believe that the cooperation will further enhance friendly relations and improve further understanding between the two sides," said the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao on Nov. 13.

Sri Lankan Crisis Continues

The direct talks between the Sri Lankan President Mrs. Chandrika Kumarataunga and the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on Nov. 10 failed to break the deadlock around the crisis in that nation. Although the two have agreed to meet again, it is evident on the ground that the peace talks to settle the two decades-old ethnic hostilities between the majority Sinhalas and the minority Tamils, are off. It is not clear yet whether the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eeelam (LTTE) will escalate the crisis by enacting another round of violence.

The crisis broke open earlier this month when the Sri Lankan president, citing the unconstitutionality of the LTTE counter-proposal, sacked the Defense Minister, and two other Cabinet Ministers, and imposed a state of emergency. Although the state of emergency was lifted within 24 hours, it is a moot question whether the old parliament would remain in force, or fresh elections would be necessary to put the house back in order. The crisis was particularly severe since the Sri Lankan prime minister was in Washington, getting an endorsement to his peace talks with the LTTE from the U.S. President George Bush, at the time Mrs. Kumaratunga made clear she is not supportive of the way talks were going.

Subsequently, Norway, whose advocacy on behalf of the terrorist group, Tamil Tigers, during the 20-month long talks, stood out like a sore thumb, and came under severe criticism from Sri Lankan and Indian analysts, announced on Nov. 14 that it is pulling out of its role as mediator in the Sri Lankan peace process, citing the power struggle between the president and the prime minister as the sole reason. The Norwegian delegation had arrived in Colombo a day after the emergency was lifted expressing confidence that the talks would begin soon. What is evident from the Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgessen's statement prior to the delegation's departure from Sri Lanka, is that the Norwegian pressure on the Sri Lankan prime minister to ignore the president and continue with talks, has not worked. It is clear that New Delhi also pulled strings to see that the talks do not begin against the wishes of the president.

Meanwhile, to up the ante, the LTTE supremo, V. Pirbhakaran, told a team of Norwegian facilitators on Nov. 13 that the political stalemate between the president and the prime minister, has "undermined the trust of the Tamil people" in the process. He also sought guarantees from the Norwegians that the Sri Lankan government "will continue with its commitment to the ceasefire agreement" that was established just prior to the beginning of talks.

The LTTE had unilaterally pulled out of the talks in April, and subsequently demanded a politico-administrative interim administration. On Oct. 31, it submitted proposals for an Interim Self-Governing Authority for the north-east. This is the gross violation of the country's Constitution in the proposal, which forced the Sri Lankan president's hands and made her to move quickly. Her objective was to scuttle any endorsement from abroad to the proposal which, if implemented, could lead to the dissection of the island-nation.

Putin And Vajpayee Critical Of U.S. Sincerity In Fighting Terrorism

During his three-day (Nov. 11-13) visit to Russia, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, during his talks with the Russian President Vladimir Putin, had reportedly criticized the U.S. for its 'double standards' in the war against terrorism. This view was expressed in the joint declaration of Nov. 13, which specifically cites the lack of U.S. cooperation in the ongoing investigation of the highjacking of the Indian Airlines flight IC-814 to Kandahar in 2001. Indian intelligence officials have indicated that the U.S. is showing little interest in finding out who was behind the hijacking, because it could disrupt the U.S. protection of the Taliban and Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) officials.

The Indian intelligence officials claim that the key to the investigation is the interrogation of the former Taliban Corps Commander, Akhtar Muhammad Usmani. Usmani, according to some reports, was later named as the heir-apparent to the Taliban supremo, Mullah Mohammad Omar. The Indian intelligence officials claim that New Delhi could not get access to Usmani, because Usmani is not in jail, and has been in the quasi-custody of the United States for several weeks. A senior Indian intelligence official told the EIW that the U.S. relationship with Usmani is "the kind a kite has with the hand that holds the string." New Delhi considers that the lack of interest of Washington in the Indian reports about Usmani and his links to the hijacking, is itself a tacit admission of the protection Washington is giving to Usmani, the official said.

An Indian investigating team was in Kabul to interrogate former Taliban Foreign Minister Mullah Wakil Ahmad Muttawakil. Muttawakil admitted that Usmani was key to the hijacking, but did not divulge any further new information. Subsequently, Muttawakil was released. Indian intelligence is now in the process of making a formal request to the Afghan government for the arrest and interrogation of Usmani.

The Indians also claim that they were trying for a while to get the log book seized by the Taliban from the aircraft. However, New Delhi is certain that this log book is now in the possession of U.S. intelligence officials. Despite repeated requests by New Delhi to Washington, requests for this material have been stonewalled.

See the Russia Digest for full report on Vajpayee visit to Russia.

Chaos In The Philippines

Philippine President Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo made a call on Nov. 12 for "total reconciliation" with all political parties, following the crisis created by 10,000 people taking to streets in the financial center of Makati in Manila earlier during that day.

The demonstration took place in the same location where the mutinous troops had seized a building complex last July. At that time, the protestors were against the corrupt links between the Defense Minister and the Military Intelligence chief with on-going terrorism in the country. The protests led to the resignation of both.

The latest protestors, on the other hand, called for the president to step down. This was triggered by the recent Supreme Court ruling (ostensibly with presidential blessings) that the impeachment by the Congress of the Chief Justice, Hilario Davide, was illegal on technical grounds. The Constitutional crisis created by the showdown between the Congress and the Supreme Court has been temporarily postponed, but is not solved.

The demonstration in Makati on Nov. 12 was brought to an end by police with water cannon and tear gas soon after the permit time to demonstrate had expired. The event followed a bizarre takeover of the Manila airport control tower last week by a former military and political officials, complaining about corruption within the military and the entire economy.

But it seems that President Macapagal-Arroyo wants to go beyond that particular issue, and work her way towards a national reconciliation of various power-bases within the country. It is for this reason that she said she wanted, by 2004 and "beyond," to mend fences with the Marcos family, with deposed President Joseph Estrada, with business tycoon Eduardo "Danding" Cojuangco, with the Communist Party of the Philippines and the New People's Army, with the Moro Islamic Liberation front, with putschist elements within the Philippine military, and with opposition political leaders.

She has asked Archbishop Fernando Capalla, incoming president of the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines, and Jesuit provincial superior Romeo Integen, to serve as her "negotiators" with various groups. Capalla has accepted the request, but Integen has refused.

Afghan Ups Pressure On Pakistan As Taliban Gains

Afghan Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, while visiting Washington, said on Nov. 10 that Afghanistan needs "meaningful help" from Islamabad on Taliban and al-Qaeda insurgents believed to be mobilizing within Pakistan along the Afghan borders.

"There is one clear fact, that the Taliban will not be able to operate outside Afghanistan without some support from some elements outside Afghanistan," the Afghan Foreign Minister said in his speech at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "They have found it easy to operate outside Afghanistan, to hold meetings, to incite instability, to call for jihad in Afghanistan," Abdullah Abdullah added.

The Afghan leader is correct about the Pakistani support lent to the al-Qaeda and the Taliban against the Afghan government and the U.S., and there are also reports of the Taliban helping to loosen control of seven districts in Zabul province. Available reports indicate that the Taliban and some of the warlords have gained control of these districts by pushing out the Kabul forces.

Fears are rising within Afghanistan of a Taliban takeover of the country. Taliban forces are now regrouping and reorganizing their ranks inside Afghanistan, and outside as well. Many of the aid agencies have left Afghanistan fearful of Taliban attacks.

Meanwhile, the Taliban spokesmen, who have maintained contact with news agencies, such as Reuters, have reported that the Taliban chief Mullah Mohammad Omar, despite being hunted for almost two years, is still very much in control of the outfit. "Since the council was set up, the Taliban jihad has much improved. Mullah Mohammad Omar is still in charge and head of the Taliban, and all our jihadi activities are being carried out with his permission and consultation," the spokesman said.

On Nov. 11, the U.S. began a new campaign, Operation Mountain Resolve, starting in Nuristan province in the northeast of Afghanistan. According to available reports, Arabs, Chechen, and Maghreb Arab members of the al-Qaeda and some of the Taliban have moved northwards to engage, disrupt, and destroy the coalition forces protecting the Afghan government. It is a strategy to thin out the coalition forces in southern and southeastern Afghanistan where the Taliban forces are very strong. Troops from the U.S. 10th Mountain Division are now battling opposition Taliban and al-Qaeda militia, which have the advantage of moving in and out of Afghanistan into Pakistan.

Thailand Hosts "Pagan" Pact With Indochina Neighbors

Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has initiated the Pagan Pact on Nov. 12, named in honor of the historic capital of Myanmar (nee' Burma), with neighbors Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. The concept behind the pact is summed up as: "four countries, one economy."

The idea is to increase growth within the region based on an "economic cooperation strategy." Central to the idea is that Thailand would provide grants and loans to its three neighbors, which are among the poorest in Asia and the world, to help with national development and boost investment in border areas.

The four countries are working together on trade and investment to achieve a smoother flow of goods, to lift cross-border tariffs, and simplify customs procedures and visa requirements, while promoting joint projects, including creation of a regional business advisory council. The context of such cooperation also lays the groundwork, as the Thai premier has implied, for responding to Myanmar's political/economic solution in the so-called "Burma Road to Peace." Thaksin Shinawatra has indicated a forum will be held in Bangkok before the end of the year. Already at the Pagan summit, the Thai premier indicated he expected several detained opposition activists to be released soon, and expressed confidence in coming national conciliation.

"Burmese officials sent a strong signal about national reconciliation," said Thaksin.

Mahathir Warns of War On Syria And Iran

Recently retired Dr. Mahathir bin Mohamad of Malaysia told a forum in Okinawa Nov. 11 that the invasion of other nations by powerful nations had not reduced the number of terrorists, but has worsened the global situation.

Dr. Mahathir gave the keynote address to the 1,000-strong "Globalization Forum 2003" in Okinawa Nov. 11, co-funded by the Institute for International Socio-Economic Studies, the Gorbachov Foundation, and the Ryukyu Shimpo newspaper. Speakers included Michael Gorbachov and Zbigniew Brzezinski on the theme of "Democracy and Security in the Globalization Era."

Dr. Mahathir told the forum, "It would seem that the greatest powers of the world have got no capacity to learn from the past, from their own recent experience even. The lessons of Vietnam have been forgotten and, more recently, lessons of Afghanistan and Iraq have taught them nothing."

If previously foreigners were safe in Iraq, now even the Red Cross and UN staff were not. "Yet there is now talk of extending the war to Syria and Iran. Do we really believe that the Syrians and Iranians would behave differently from the Iraqis if their countries are invaded and occupied?"

Dr. Mahathir said smaller nations no longer feel secure, as powerful nations interfere in their domestic affairs, and the UN is no longer free to decide to act or not. "But worse things have happened lately. Powerful nations have ignored the UN altogether and invaded and occupied countries under false pretexts. In other words, the neo-colonialism President Sukarno used to talk about is real."

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