In this issue:

Vajpayee on Strategic Visit To Russia

New Delhi Analyst: Russia-India Summit Is History-Making

Nuclear Power, Space Cooperation Between Russia and India

Central Asia Transport Boosted

India Gets Military Base in Tajikistan

Georgia Regime in Crisis After Elections

Pope Thanks Putin for Stance on War

EU and Russia Agree on 'Common Economic Space'

Iranian National Security Council Chief to Moscow

Russia Will Build First Floating Nuclear Power Plant

From Volume 2, Issue Number 46 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Nov. 18, 2003
Russia and Central Asia News Digest

Vajpayee on Strategic Visit To Russia

Before his arrival Nov. 11 on a state visit to Russia, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee spoke of the potential for cooperation among Russia, India, and China. Asked by Rossiskaya Gazeta about the proposed Delhi-Moscow-Beijing triangle, Vajpayee said: "There are several issues on which the three countries share views, and can consult each other. The creation of a just, multi-polar world is one such issue." Russian and Indian press reported that cooperation in the defense and space sectors would lead the agenda of Vajpayee's talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Vajpayee's visit to Moscow, includes his fourth meeting with Putin this year.

Ten bilateral agreements were to be signed during the summit. Included among the economic ones, Vajpayee stated, would be establishment of a task force "to work out modalities of utilizing the remainder of Rupee-Rouble debt funds [worth about US$3 billion] for investment in both countries," with an emphasis on high-technology areas. A special rupee-ruble exchange agreement dates from the Soviet period. Another key issue was the two countries' views on Central Asia. Indian Ambassador K. Raghunath to Russia stated: "We have a lot to say, on our immediate neighbor Central Asia." Russia has indicated that it would welcome a greater involvement of India in Central Asia. Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal announced beforehand that a Declaration on Global Challenges would be signed, regarding security and stability issues, and defense ties between the two would be reviewed at the highest level.

On Nov. 8, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko said that Russian and Indian "relations make a steady progress toward strengthening the strategic partnership." He added that their joint naval exercise held in the Indian Ocean this last May "marked a new stage in the strategic partnership." The two countries "are looking for ways to boost trade and increase the share of high-tech and science intensive products in it." Russia also welcomes New Delhi's initiatives to improve relations with Pakistan, he said.

New Delhi Analyst: Russia-India Summit Is History-Making

"This is how history is made," said a well-connected Indian analyst on Nov. 13, about the just-ended India-Russia summit. There is a "big change" in the way the joint statements are made, he said, a "very firm and clear message, that 'we will fight terrorism with all the might at our command, everywhere.' " This is not just a message to al-Qaeda, he said; it is also a message to Washington and its allies. The message is, from India and Russia, "we are now together," and there also is China. India and Russia not only agreed to major defense cooperation, and joint production of technologies, they are also committed to a multi-polar world.

Most important, was that Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee brought with him a group of 100 leading Indian industrialists and businessmen, the New Delhi source said. This was a very important event, amidst President Putin's troubles with the Russian oligarchy and its international supporters. "Russia can now say, 'We have friends all over the world,' who want to work with us economically. The oligarchy has been told that they must behave. There was a lot of discussion of expansion of trade, and joint investment in strategic areas, including in oil."

Nuclear Power, Space Cooperation Between Russia and India

The Russian Atomic Energy Ministry called for lifting the sanctions against supplying India with nuclear technology, as India and Russia begin discussions on cooperation on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. On the eve of the summit last week, Indian National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra, in Moscow since Nov. 8, met with Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev. The Russian Ministry announced: "It is high time to review bans on nuclear cooperation with India imposed in 1992 by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)." Before the Russian announcement, Indian First Deputy Foreign Minister Kanval Sibal had told reporters in New Delhi that India was interested in buying more nuclear-energy reactors from Russia. He said that India realized that Russia was bound by its participation in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Russia is already participating in building two light-water reactors at India's Kudankulam nuclear power plant in Tamilnadu state.

Russian Space Agency head Yuri Koptev announced Nov. 13, after a government meeting to discuss Russia's budget for next year, that "India has drawn up a Moon-study program, and Russia, with its long-time experience, is in favor of participating in it." The Indian government approved a mission for a lunar satellite in September. This, and other space cooperation, was discussed with Russian officials during Prime Minister Vajpayee's trip to Moscow. Koptev recalled that Russia's cooperation with India in space began more than 30 years ago.

Central Asia Transport Boosted

India will participate with Iran and Uzbekistan in building trans-Afghanistan road and rail links between Termez, Uzbekistan, and Chahbahor port in Iran, Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha announced in Tashkent on Nov. 8. Sinha, on a three-day visit to Uzbekistan, said that the trilateral Indo-Afghan-Iranian accord on building the road would reduce the distance from India to Central Asia by 1,500 km. "We have also decided to add a rail link too," he announced. The 200 km Zaranj-Delaran sector of the proposed transport corridor is already complete.

In Tashkent, Sinha reached agreement with the Uzbek leadership to build a highway linking the Afghan port of Khairaton with Herat, and India would negotiate with Kabul to extend the Zaranj-Delaran sector to Herat in western Afghanistan. After Kabul agrees, finances would be worked out. Uzbek Foreign Minister Sadiq Safayev said that "India will be a major player in this transport project," and indicated that Tashkent has shifted its focus in finding an access to world trade, from the big Pakistani port of Karachi to India's huge port, Mumbai.

Sinha's delegation also let it be known, that "unexpectedly wide-ranging issues" were discussed when he met Uzbek President Islam Karimov, including closer defense and security cooperation.

India Gets Military Base in Tajikistan

In advance of Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee's Nov. 14 visit to Tajikistan, the Indian Defense Ministry's Military Engineering Services (MES) finished preparing an air base at Ayni, 10 kms northeast of the Tajik capital, Dushanbe. This will be the first official Indian military base in a foreign country. The facilities at Ayni, according to press reports, consist of runways to handle fighter aircraft and heavy-lift transport aircraft and steeling up existing hangars to house them. The MES is also building housing to station Indian troops, to train Tajik troops, and keep an eye on Indian interests in Central Asia.

India's interests there, in physical terms, consist of Indian Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Videsh Ltd.'s tie-up with Kazakhstan for oil exploration in Alibekmola and Kurmangazi fields, which straddle the Kazakh-Russian borders. India and Tajik special forces held joint exercises in February this year. In April, Defense Minister George Fernandes paid a visit to Dushanbe to sign the India-Tajik defense pact.

Georgia Regime in Crisis After Elections

The immediate threat of violence in downtown Tbilisi, Georgia, abated on Nov. 15, but the political crisis continued, when some 15,000 demonstrators surrounded the main government building, demanding the resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze. Armored vehicles of the Internal Affairs forces were in the street. One protest leader, former Justice Minister and now Tbilisi City Council head Michael Saakashvili, was talking in terms of a "Milosevic" or "Ceaucescu" scenario for Shevardnadze, i.e., his ouster.

The crisis built up quickly after Parliamentary elections, held Nov. 2, but it is not simply the result of dissatisfaction with the economic collapse and hardships. The parties most committed to reversing the submission to foreign takeover of Georgia's key infrastructure, and opposed to subservience to outside geopolitical interests—namely, the Labor Party and the Industry Will Save Georgia party—are not even involved in the demonstrations. The fact that Saakashvili's National Movement and the Burjanadze/Democrats bloc of Nino Burjanadze have taken the lead, has prompted many in Georgia to suspect that the sudden confrontation is an American-run provocation by circles interested in regime change. The opposition, especially the National Movement, reportedly enjoys broad financial support from foreign organizations like the American National Democratic Institute, an arm of the National Endowment for Democracy.

Meanwhile, Saakashvili and Burjanadze charge that Shevardnadze has conspired to rig the elections with the regionally based Renaissance bloc, headed by the leader of Ajaria, Aslan Abashidze. Ajaria accounts for about 20% of eligible voters, borders on Georgia's top trading partner, Turkey, and is the location of a Russian military base.

According to the latest preliminary results (wildly fluctuating returns have been released daily over the past two weeks), the pro-government bloc For A New Georgia was ahead, with over 22%. Next was Renaissance, the Ajarian party, with 20%, Saakashvili's National Movement—18%, Labor Party—14%, Burjanadze-Democrats bloc—8.5%, Industry Will Save Georgia—7.2%. With votes still being counted, the Saakashvili and Burjanadze camps launched demonstrations, demanding that the election results be overturned, and citing exit polls—by foreign NGOs, that give different counts from the preliminary official ones.

Shevardnadze warns that the radical opposition is threatening to launch civil war. He also lashed out against the Soros Foundation, charging that its Georgia office was crudely interfering in the internal affairs of a sovereign country, financing the opposition. Shevardnadze was on the telephone with Russian President Putin Nov. 14 and 15, but there was no official announcement of a Russian mediation effort. Very visible in Tbilisi, however, is U.S. Ambassador Miles, running back and forth between the radical opposition and the authorities, calling for the leadership of the country not to use force, while also holding lengthy, confidential discussions with the rally leaders.

On Nov. 15, Saakashvili and Burjanadze called for the demonstrations to be suspended until Nov. 17, allowing time for talks with Shevardnadze and the regime. Burjanadze says the protests will stop, if the elections are annulled and new ones scheduled. Saakashvili continues to demand that Shevardnadze step down.

Pope Thanks Putin for Stance on War

Receiving Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vatican on Nov. 5, Pope John Paul II thanked the Russian leader for his work "in favor of the rapprochement between the Catholic and Orthodox Churches," and for Moscow's stance against the Iraq war, and its support for the Road Map in the Middle East, the Pope's collaborators report. The Pope showed Putin the icon of the Virgin of Kazan, a highly venerated image in the Orthodox community, which he hopes to bring as a gift to Patriarch Aleksi II, whenever a Papal visit to Moscow will be possible.

At the end of the meeting, the Pope said to Putin, "I expect good news from you." A spokesman for the Moscow Patriarchate, Vsevolod Chaplin, said he was very satisfied with the Putin-John Paul meeting, which "will have positive effects on the Catholic attitude towards the Orthodox Church."

EU and Russia Agree on 'Common Economic Space'

At the European Union-Russia summit in Italy Nov. 6, a declaration on the definition of a "common economic space," and the scope of Russia's future economic integration with the EU, was signed. Agreement was found also on three more "common spaces," already discussed at a previous meeting in St. Petersburg: internal security, external security and culture. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his speech to the summit, stressed that Europe's global political, economic, and commercial weight, as well as its influence in the security sphere, will depend on specific coordinated actions. Putin voiced hope that Russia and the expanding EU could guide the process of establishing a new world order, as well as forging common values and interests, but only by acting together.

Following the Russia-EU meeting and Putin's bilateral talks with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian oil company ENI signed a deal with Gazprom that is a first: it allows ENI to re-export Russian natural gas. Putin said of the revolutionary decision, "New horizons and prospects are opening up here. This decision is a step to meet Italy." Putin cautioned, however, not to link the fuel prices to the ongoing talks on Russia's entry in the World Trade Organization. "Russia can talk prices both on the bilateral and multilateral basis, but not as regards entry into the WTO," Putin said.

Iranian National Security Council Chief to Moscow

Hassan Rowhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, the man who negotiated the nuclear agreement with the Europeans in October, left Tehran for Moscow on Nov. 9. Rowhani had been scheduled to visit Moscow a week earlier but, perhaps due to the presence there of Ariel Sharon, his visit was suddenly postponed. Having completed talks with Mohammed ElBaradei of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rowhani went to Moscow to discuss the issue of nuclear fuel for Iran's nuclear plant at Bushehr, which the Russians are completing. Russia wants Iran to return the spent fuel.

Before leaving, Rowhani reiterated that Iran's commitment to sign the additional Non-Proliferation Treaty protocol does not limit its right to use nuclear energy, nor its right to enrich uranium. He stressed the priority of preserving Iran's sovereignty, independence, and national dignity.

Russia Will Build First Floating Nuclear Power Plant

The State Chief Export Commission of Russia Nov. 10 recommended a Rusenergoatom design for a prototype of a floating nuclear-power plant, to be constructed off the coast near Severodvinsk in the Arkhangelsk region. The project is to improve and secure the energy supply in the regions along the Arctic Sea route, and, as Rusenergoatom said in a press release, the price of electricity generated by such a floating plant will be half of the price to be paid for electricity generated by a conventional thermal plant using organic fuel.

The Rosenergoatom release says that the cost of the prototype of the floating plant will be about $150 million, and the payback procedure will be stretched over a period of 13 years. Two other designs for floating plants exist and have to be authorized: 1) in the Kamchatka region, 2) on the Chukotskoi peninsula. A miniaturized model of the floating plant is displayed at an ongoing Russian high-tech exhibit that Mayor John Street has helped to arrange in Philadelphia.

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