In this issue:

Afghan Loya Jirga Fails To Achieve Objective

South Asian Leaders Willing To Compromise

Pak National Assembly Declares Musharraf President

India To Send Large Business Delegation to Central Asia

Benefits of Malaysia's Bakun Dam Will Be Long-Term

China Expanding 'Europe Orientation' Strategy in Aerospace

China May Cut Bank Energy-Intensive Projects

India Expects Myanmar and Bangladesh To Expel Insurgents

India Has Doubts About Israeli Nuclear Sub Technology

From Volume 3, Issue Number 1 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Jan. 6, 2004
Asia News Digest

Afghan Loya Jirga Fails To Achieve Objective

Despite heavy maneuverings by the UN Special Envoy to Afghanistan, Lakhdar Brahimi, and the U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan and a member of the neo-con cabal in Washington, Zalmay Khalilzad, the attempt to bring reconciliation and mutual understanding among various Afghan ethnic groups through the Loya Jirga (Grand Council of Elders) has shattered to pieces. The Loya Jirga of 502 delegates, representing various region and ethnic groups, had begun deliberating on Dec. 14, with the hope of adopting the draft Constitution prepared by the Afghan interim regime, under the leadership of President Hamid Karzai. The deliberations were prolonged due to the minority ethnic communities' refusal to accept the 'strong Presidency' clause in the Constitution, strongly defended by President Karzai and his American backers. The opposition interpreted the clause as a way to delegate immense power to the ethnic majority Pushtun community. The Opposition, led by the former President Burhanuddin Rabbani, a Tajik-Afghan, pointed out that because of the existing numbers, a Pushtun will be elected every time, and it would help to consolidate power in the hands of the majority.

Although Karzai and his supporters urged the opposition to rally behind "one Afghanistan," it was clear to all who were opposing the clause, that it is an American ploy to keep control of Afghanistan through maintaining control over a single person—a President. The opposition to Karzai believed that such control cannot be exercised if the power is entrusted to a strong parliament, elected by the people, to which the President must remain answerable.

The failure of the Loya Jirga has exposed the existing hostilities within various communities in Afghanistan. In essence, holding the Loya Jirga may turn out to be a negative factor. It may help the anti-Karzai, anti-America militant groups recruit in the near future. If anyone could be blamed for this catastrophe, it must be Zalmay Khlailzad and his neo-con friends in Washington.

South Asian Leaders Willing To Compromise

The Foreign Ministers of South Asian Association of Regional Countries (SAARC), representing India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Maldives, are meeting in Islamabad. They agreed on Jan. 2, to create a regional free-trade area, to take measures to combat terrorism, and to raise the living standards in a region home to nearly a quarter of world's population.

Although bilateral discussions are not allowed under the SAARC charter, there is much expectation of easing of the India-Pakistan relations during the Summit. Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee will be in Islamabad and will hold one-to-one talks with the Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Pakistani Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali. India's National Security Adviser and Prime Minister's Principal Secretary Brajesh Mishra is already in Islamabad.

Meanwhile, South Asian corporate chiefs, the most effective pressure group for turning SAARC into a regional economic power, have announced that they plan to launch a forum to push free trade and investment in the region.

"We want to build South Asia as a manufacturing and outsourcing hub for the world," said Ajay Khannda, of India's Confederation of Indian Industry.

Pak National Assembly Declares Musharraf President

After months of stand-off, elected Parliamentarians and selected Senators voted to elect Gen. Pervez Musharraf President of Pakistan. The unprecedented vote, allowed by a new constitutional amendment, accorded legitimacy to Musharraf's military presidency after 14 months of noisy opposition. The vote of confidence was registered in return for Musharraf's promise to relinquish the post of the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) by Dec. 31, 2004. Musharraf will remain President till 2007.

Although two major political parties, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), refrained from voting, Musharraf drew support of the Pakistan Muslim League (Q)—a party created by Musharraf and the six-party religious group Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). Musharraf was also backed solidly from Washington.

According to Pakistani analysts, President Musharraf's promise to shed his military uniform meant little. In reality, Musharraf may find many emergencies and expediencies to extend his tenure as COAS for another five years. What was key during the National Assemblies vote, was that Musharraf was cheered on by the mullah-infested MMA and from a distance, by Washington. This support combination will equip the President with a lot of power.

India To Send Large Business Delegation to Central Asia

To open up business with Kazahkstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan, a delegation of 40 business men and women will be leaving on a 13-day (Jan. 10-22) tour, India's Ministry of Commerce announced. The delegation will be led by India's Minister of State for Commerce, S.B. Mookerjee.

Indian officials pointed out on Dec. 28, to the news daily, The Indian Express, that the visit was part of the "Focus Central Asia" program launched last year and is yet to take off. Earlier this year, the Federation of Indian Exporters Organization (FIEO) had organized a roundtable in New Delhi with ambassadors and representatives of business and industry from Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakstan. India's trade with these Central Asian nations has remained very low, in the vicinity of $1.7 billion.

The objective of the visit, as elaborated by the Ministry of Commerce, is to identify sectors where India could make direct investments. Central Asian countries want India to invest in a number of areas. A delegation from Kyrgyzstan which recently visited India said their country would like to set up joint ventures with the Indian companies to invest in the region.

Benefits of Malaysia's Bakun Dam Will Be Long-Term

Roger Wong, CEO of Malaysia's Sarawak Electricity Corporation (SESCO), which is building the huge Bakun Dam in Malaysia, issued a caution that the benefits of dam as a cheaper source of electricity would become apparent only in the long term, due, in part, to the high initial capital investment in building the dam and commitments made to generating plants and independent power producers.

Wong pointed out that any change in the electricity tariff structure depends on two other variables—consumer demand and the nature of ownership of the project. He said: "If the owner is a private concern driven by profit, then rates may go up. But if the owner is the government, then the rates may be lower."

China Expanding 'Europe Orientation' Strategy in Aerospace

China launched the first probe in the Sino-European Double Star satellite cooperation project, announced Sun Weigang, director of the astronautics of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASTC) on Dec. 29.

Sun said the successful launch is a "classic" in Sino-Europe cooperation and a sound foundation for further cooperation in further areas. The satellite was jointly produced by the two sides, he said. Also, Sun reported, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation has signed an agreement with France's Alcatel to jointly produce a communication satellite. Sun Weigang emphasized that this "Europe orientation" is a key part of making the CASTC, a world-class aerospace enterprise.

China May Cut Bank Energy-Intensive Projects

Facing increasing shortages of electrical power, Chen Jinxing of the State Grid Corporation, told reporters on Dec. 29 that "electricity consumption has been growing by at least 15% monthly on average since June 2002. Twenty-one provinces, two-thirds of China, had to limit the use of electricity due to power shortages."

Already, seven of China's provinces have enforced blackouts this winter to prevent a total collapse of their electrical grids. More blackouts are expected in the coming period.

A national-level meeting said China would have to accelerate construction of new power projects, and have central coordination of the coal, power, and transport sectors to ensure supply. The new projects will all be based on burning of coal.

India Expects Myanmar and Bangladesh To Expel Insurgents

The Royal Bhutanese Army has reportedly demolished all camps set up by the northeast Indian insurgents—United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), and the Kamtaput Liberation Organization (KLO), within Bhutan along India-Bhutan border. The insurgents, on the run, had ostensibly sent an appeal to the "Chairman, People's Republic of China," requesting asylum. Subsequently, Beijing made it known that no Indian insurgents would be allowed into China.

On Jan. 2, the Indian Army Chief of Staff, Gen. N.C. Vij hinted at possible action by the Myanmar Army against northeast-based rebels. On visit to the northeast, General Vij praised the Royal Bhutanese Army for carrying out a "very good' action against the rebels, and told reporters that in Myanmar also there exist camps of the rebel outfits. He made clear that since the bilateral relationship between New Delhi and Yangon is cordial, there is no reason why the Myanmar Army cannot do as good a job the Bhutanese Army did. He also pointed out that the Bhutanese Army's action has broken the backbone of the ULF, NDFB and KLO outfits and has neutralized almost 650 of the 1,200 northeast insurgents.

General Vij said there were rebel camps within Bangladesh, but Dhaka has not shown any interest to flush them out. Earlier, New Delhi had charged that militants fighting the Indian government also crossed the porous border into Bangladesh.

The Dhaka government denies allowing any rebel to operate from Bangladesh. Bangladeshi troops made a major seizure of mines and rocket launchers in raids in the tense southeastern hills bordering India and Myanmar.

India Has Doubts About Israeli Nuclear Sub Technology

According to the Indian government-run news agency, Press Trust of India (PTI), India's Defense and intelligence sources have expressed serious doubts about Israel's ability to assist India in building its nuclear submarines. The offer to assist was reportedly made by the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon during his visit to India in September 2003.

Citing sources, PTI pointed out that Israel, which has just procured a Dolphin-class submarine from Germany, has neither the practical experience, nor technology to offer to India in this area. Israel could supply India with submarine-related missiles, radar, and other electronic systems, but even these would be of secondary interest to New Delhi.

Even if Israel were to use the project to acquire the experience for building its own deep-sea naval force far from the Israeli coastline in the future, such a proposal is "nonetheless, an interesting theoretical exercise," bearing little relevance for Israel's strategic situation, the source sited by the PTI said.

In addition, as a non-signatory of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Israel cannot publicly get itself involved in such a venture with another non-signatory of the NPT, without raising serious questions from the international community about its own nuclear defense capabilities and intentions.

All rights reserved © 2004 EIRNS