In this issue:

Neo-Con Michael Pillsbury Provoking China

Tajikistan Reports Heavy Influx of Afghan Heroin

Kyrgyzstan: A Terrorist Haven

Israel To Sell AWACS to India; Pakistan Fears New Arms Race

Thai Gov't Pressured To Withdraw Troops From Iraq

UN: Some Success in Reducing Drug Use in Asia

Malaysian Prime Minister Calls for Elections

India, Brazil, South Africa Have Begun Strategic Talks

Sri Lanka: Tigers Split; Elimination Now Expected

From Volume 3, Issue Number 10 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Mar. 9, 2004
Asia News Digest

Neo-Con Michael Pillsbury Provoking China

While Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian was organizing a demonstration of supporters holding hands across the entire island, symbolizing a defense of Taiwan against China's missiles, China-basher Michael Pillsbury, whose work on the Chinese military has been used in the China hawks' pro-Taiwan propaganda, was in Taiwan Feb. 29, speaking to the Institute for Taiwan Defense and Security. Pillsbury praised the changes implemented by the Bush Administration regarding Taiwan policy: regular arms sale, not just yearly; an offer of Kidd-class missile destroyers and submarines; a push to develop missile defense and early warning systems. Pillsbury said that China's supposed build-up "casts a cloud" over their expressed wish for peaceful reunification. Pillsbury and his friends are not pleased with the Bush Administration's pressure on President Chen to drop or weaken the planned referendum condemning Chinese missiles.

Tajikistan Reports Heavy Influx of Afghan Heroin

According to a recent UN report on drugs, Tajikistan is now the target of narco-traffickers taking heroin and opium out of Afghanistan, the BBC reported March 3. Last year, nearly six tons of heroin were seized along the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border, almost 1,000 times more than the amount seized in 1996. This means that all the heroin crossing Central Asia is coming through Tajikistan by boats, cars, and on pack animals. The amount seized is estimated to be less than 10% of the total.

The heroin, the UN report notes, is also much purer now than in recent years, suggesting the existence of a sophisticated and established refining process within Afghanistan.

The UN reports says that the acetic anhydride, the chemical used for refining of opium and producing heroin, comes from the United States, Mexico, and Europe. The UN has started a plan, Operation Topaz, to block the entry of acetic anhydride into Afghanistan. Although Tajikistan has joined Operation Topaz, Turkmenistan has refused to join, and does not report to the UN drug control board.

Kyrgyzstan: A Terrorist Haven

According to a terrorist of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), the leading Central Asian terrorist outfit, who is now in Kyrgyz prison waiting to be hanged, "Kyrgyzstan has the most favorable conditions for carrying out terrorist attacks," and as a base for former members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

The assessment of this terrorist is to the point. By providing a base for the U.S. Army, the Kyrgyz government has attracted the IMU terrorists the way honey attracts bees. Kyrgyzstan is hosting some 1,100 U.S. troops at the main civilian airport near the capital city of Bishkek. The U.S base conducts missions supporting air operations over Afghanistan, some 450 miles southwest of Kyrgyzstan.

The IMU members fought alongside the Taliban and al-Qaeda against the U.S.-backed Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. The IMU's objective is to overthrow the pro-U.S Islam Karimov government in Uzbekistan.

The U.S-led Afghan operation, now more than two years old, has dispersed the IMU cadres, but the massive spurt in opium production in Afghanistan has kept the IMU in good financial health.

Israel To Sell AWACS to India; Pakistan Fears New Arms Race

The Israeli Security Cabinet has cleared a $1.1 billion sale of the Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) to India. Under the AWACS deal, Israeli Phalcon radar is to be mounted and integrated on the Russian-designed Ilyushin-76 planes by the Beriyev Aircraft Design Bureau, a unit of the Irkut Aerospace Corporation, the producer of Sukhoi-30 MKI warplanes for India. Under the contract, India will buy three IL-76 from Uzbekistan, send them to Russia for new engines, and then, Russia sends them on to Israel for avionics. A senior official of the Irkut Aerospace Corp. told the Feb. 29 Press Trust of India that they "hope to sign the contract with Israel by April."

The news of India's purchase of the Phalcon system came under immediate criticism from the Pakistani Foreign Ministry. "Such transactions undermine the spirit of peace and stability pushed by Pakistan, India, and the international community in the region," said Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Masood Khan. The director general of Islamabad's Inter-Services Public Relations, Maj.-Gen. Shaukat Sultan noted: "The arrival of such a sophisticated system in our neighborhood is certainly a cause for concern to us. It will also whip up a new arms race in the region.... We will take every possible step to ensure security."

Thai Gov't Pressured To Withdraw Troops From Iraq

Thailand's House Committee on Foreign Affairs called on the government on Feb. 29 to review the deployment of troops in Iraq, saying a withdrawal could ease tension in three largely Muslim southern provinces by distancing Thailand from the United States, The Nation reported March 1.

Committee vice-chairman Kobsak Chutikul said the government should not dispatch a second contingent of troops to Iraq, since the first contingent had sufficiently demonstrated Thailand's commitment to the United States and the international community. A second Thai contingent of 400 troops is slated to leave for Iraq on March 17. Kobsak has said the new contingent should wait until the new Iraqi government requests their deployment.

Kobsak further made the connection with an outbreak of violence in three largely Muslim provinces since Jan. 4. "Staying longer with the U.S. seems to add fuel to the anti-U.S. fire,' said Kobsak. Violent attacks have taken place daily since the Jan. 4 raid on a military base which killed four soldiers, followed by nearly daily attacks on Iraqi police officials.

UN: Some Success in Reducing Drug Use in Asia

The UN Narcotics Control Board released its latest report March 2, which paints a patchy picture of success in reducing drug use in Asia. Successes can be seen in Myanmar, where, through a process of securing ceasefire accords with opium-producing ethnic groups, and in joint efforts with a highly successful crop-substitution program, carried out in cooperation with Thailand, Myanmar, which had been the second-largest opium producer, after Afghanistan, has reduced its opium-poppy production by almost two-thirds. A similar drop has been seen in Laos, the world's third-largest producer of opium.

In other areas, cannabis use is dropping, but the second-biggest threat is methamphetamine use, which is most acute in Myanmar and China where production is concentrated, and in Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, where consumption levels are among the highest in the world.

The Narcotics Control Board reports that more than two-thirds of global seizures of methamphetamines take place in East and Southeast Asia, and half are in China alone. The report concluded: "Most of the clandestine laboratories were detected by Chinese authorities in the provinces of Fujian and Guangdong."

Malaysian Prime Minister Calls for Elections

Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, on March 3, called for general elections. Although no date has yet been set for the elections, they are expected to take place within weeks, The News of Pakistan reported from Kuala Lumpur.

Meanwhile, Malaysian King Syed Sirajuddin Syed Putra Jamalullail has signed a decree dissolving Parliament, effective March 4, "to make way for the 11th general election."

Under Malaysian parliamentary rules, the king formally dissolves Parliament on the advice of the Prime Minister, then the Election Commission meets to set the date for the nomination of candidates and the polling date. The Election Commission is expected to meet early next week.

India, Brazil, South Africa Have Begun Strategic Talks

The foreign ministers of India, Brazil, and South Africa held a two-day (March 4-5) meeting in New Delhi aimed at cementing trade and defense cooperation, an Indian official told The Daily Times of Pakistan.

The talks will take place under the newly-formed dialogue forum set up by the G-3 economic grouping. Brazil has been seeking free-trade deals among developing countries, as a way of offsetting the trading clout of developed nations, and is keen to work on a trilateral agreement with India and South Africa.

"The foreign ministers are expected to work out a preliminary plan to explore such a free trade agreement," said India's Foreign Secretary B. Shashank. The trilateral forum has a vast potential for shaping a debate on globalization issues and influencing their course, so that globalization becomes a positive force for the benefit of developing nations, Shashank said.

India's Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha, his Brazilian counterpart Celso Amorim, and South African Minister Nkosazana Diamani-Zuma, will also discuss ways of creating a strong trading partnership with China and Russia to make their presence felt at the WTO. \

Sri Lanka: Tigers Split; Elimination Now Expected

The Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka have split almost down the middle, as peace broker Norway moved to salvage the situation, according to the Asian Age of Colombo March 4. On the ground, the Tigers' eastern commander, Muralitharan (better known as "Karuna") expressed his unwillingness to accept the Tiger leadership under V. Prabhkaran. Muralitharan has demanded complete autonomy for the Batticalao-Amparai district within the Tamil Tigers' administration.

Both President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe have kept quiet watching the development. The Norwegians, who were the "best friends" of the Tigers, ostensibly worried about violence breaking out, met with Prabhakaran's political wing leader, S.P. Thamilselvan.

The breaking of the Tamil Tigers is the best news for both Colombo and New Delhi. The break, it is expected, will lead to the elimination of the Tigers. On the other hand, the Donald Rumsfeld-Andrew Marshall duo in the Pentagon were behind the Norwegians' attempt to help the Tigers get hold of the eastern port of Trincomalee. With the Tigers split, the Pentagon will have to temporarily forsake the Trincomalee dream.

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