Western European News Digest
'New Political and Diplomatic Game' After Spanish Elections
"A totally new political and diplomatic game" has been created by Spain's "extraordinary" election and post-election developments, a senior British defense source said in discussion with EIR March 17. He agreed with Lyndon LaRouche's evaluation that "the cat's out of the bag." He asserted that "we will hear all the usual posturings from Washington and London, but the fact is, they will have to beat a retreat. What we have seen in Spain is quite extraordinary: Twelve hours after the election new Prime Minister [Jose Luis Rodriquez] Zapatero, made statements that cannot now simply be withdrawn, they have a quality of irreversibility about them. To say, that the Iraq war is a 'result of lies,' and to speak about the 'magnificent relations' he wants with France and Germanyhe cannot now back out of such declarations."
The source affirmed that the Bush Administration would have no choice, but to attempt to "short-circuit the effects of this sudden, emerging uniqueness of Spain," by "going to the United Nations to effectively take over the situation in Iraqand this will mean enormous concessions by the U.S. and Britain to the UN. If concessions are not now made, the whole thing will begin to unravel. After the elections in Spain, we are in a totally new political and diplomatic game. A policy retreat is now in the offing."
He said the French, in particular, are enjoying this new dynamic: "The words 'I told you so' are now echoing like mad throughout France," while the governments of Britain, Italy, Poland, and the U.S. are in confusion.
This source, who has long insisted that Cheney would eventually use "health problems" to remove himself from office, repeated this forecast today, in the context of discussing the changed political-diplomatic environment.
Kosova Events Signal Collapse of UN-NATO Policy
Croatian sources, who are following the situation in Kosovo closely, told EIR March 19, that they see the situation as having been provoked as part of a broader strategy of tension being unleashed now in Europe, following events in Spain.
Alex Anderson of the International Crisis Group in Kosova, told EIR the situation is now explosive. Speaking from Kosovo, he said, "We were all taken by surprise by the ferocity of what happened on Wednesday when clashes broke out between Serbs and ethnic Albanians.... This is the result of the failure of the United Nations and NATO to come to grips with the fact that they must resolve the final status of Kosovo." Anderson sees the situation as the coming to the surface of the accumulated rage and frustration due political and, especially, economic stagnation, indicated by reports of 60% unemployment.
This has the overtones of a rebellion by all sides against the status quo of the past four years. Although he said the security situation had on the surface improved over the past years, these events show how fragile and artificial the situation has been.
He would not say the situation had been provoked by either side, but did say that over the past year, Serbia has been making moves to demonstrate that Kosovo is still part of Serbia-Montenegro. They have set up parallel structures to the UN, and have poured over 100 million euros into the province in order to pay higher salaries than the UN, as a way of reinforcing their control, which has caused friction between Serbs and Albanians.
He was also surprised at the events inside Serbia proper, including the burning down of mosques, and demonstrations, which he said are obviously organized by the extremist organizations.
EU's Prodi: Force Alone Cannot Defeat Terrorism
In an interview with the Financial Times March 16, European Commission President Romano Prodi said that the March 11 Madrid atrocities showed that the U.S. strategy of using force to defeat terrorism was insufficient, and that the European Union needed to develop its own response. Prodi said Europe needed also to focus on "soft security" and work to develop cooperation with neighboring countries.
"These dark days have shown us how the American approach itself has not been sufficient to deal with the situation completely," he said. "It is clear that force alone cannot win the fight against terrorism. Europe's response must be more wide-ranging than the American reaction." Prodi said the EU was developing a "hard security" strategy of defense and police cooperation. But he stressed the need for better judicial cooperation, and a policy to ensure that neighboring countries, such as Morocco, Russia and Libya, did not feel isolated.
"One thing is clear," he said. "Things will only start moving when we have resolved the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians. From Madrid, people are calling out for Europe to provide greater protection and security."
Chirac, Schroeder Oppose Clash of Civilizations Scenario
After their meeting in Paris March 16, the French Jacques Chirac President and German Chancellor Gerhardt Schroeder told the press that both countries agree that an effective anti-terror strategy requires the eradication the roots of political violence and extremism in numerous crisis regions of this world.
"We must counterpose hope, solidarity, and the dialogue of civilizations, against the alleged inevitability of a clash of civilizations," Chirac said. It is necessary to increase economic development and to eliminate injustice in the world, Schroeder added, stating that the war on terrorism cannot be won with military means alone.
France and Germany intend to present their respective proposals, also for the better coordination of anti-terrorism measures in Europe, to next week's EU Summit in Dublin.
Spanish Elections Bode Ill for Blair
Britain will be the first to suffer the implications of Spain's elections, a senior continental European political figure commented to EIR March 15, and the results bode ill for Tony Prime Minister Blair.
When it was suggested to him, that the results would have significant effects in Italy and Britain, he shot back, "I would reverse the order. Britain is first. The implications of the vote, are that we can say goodbye to Mr. Blair. What happened in Spain yesterday, absolutely accelerates the coming downfall of Blair. So, for the days and weeks ahead, this will all be felt much more in Britain, than in Italy. There should well be alarm in 10 Downing Street."
He added: "The effects of the Spanish results will be felt in Britain, Italy, and Poland, in that order. Things will move faster in Britain than the other two, but the other two leaders will also pay the price, for jumping on the bandwagon of the Iraq war, and the Washington-London 'New Europe vs. Old Europe' strategy."
Anti-Terror Measures Increase Across Europe
In the wake of the Madrid bombings, surveillance and protection has been massively increased throughout Europe, at central stations, rail lines, airports and other public mass transport hubs, in countries of the European Union.
In France, the second-highest anti-terrorism alert status "red" was imposed past weekend, after a renewed threat by the ominous AZF group against the French railway system came in, via an "open letter" by the group to President Jacques Chirac.
In Italy, special measures have been imposed for Rome and four other major citiesMilan, Naples, Perugia, Bologna. In Germany, surveillance of central stations and airports has been intensified. A special working group of Interior Minister Otto Schily and several state interior ministers was convened in Germany, on March 15, with a controversial proposal by Joerg Schoenbohm, Interior Minister of Brandenburg, on the agenda: He calls for the creation of a German National Guard, composed of the anti-crime agency BKA, the border police BGS and the customs service. In Brussels, the interior ministers of the EU member governments will meet March 22, as well.
NATO has began rehearsing deployments against terror attacks: Interestingly, the day before the Madrid terror attacks, German, Dutch, and British NATO forces held an exercise on Dutch territory, codenamed "Berlin Plus CME/CMX," with the script speaking of terror attacks on trains, with many human casualties.
Will Euro-Zone Break Apart?
The euro-zone could break apart, Morgan Stanley economist Joachim Fels wrote in an editorial for the March 15 German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, headlined "There also exists a way out of the monetary union." He notes that political and economic tensions in Europe are rising, and this will further increase after 10 new members join the European Union later this year, as there are divergent economic interests between the rich and the poor countries. The risks involved here have not yet been recognized by financial markets.
Another problem, says Fels, is the "suspension of the Stability Pact" which increases the risk that budget deficits are going "out of control." There will be ever more pressure on the central banks just to print money to cure economic problems. And what happens once a "severe political and economic crisis" erupts?
Against this background, states Fels, "even a break-up of the European Union or the euro cannot be fully ruled out, in particular if the stability consensus in Europe, which is the basis of the Monetary Union, disintegrates." Fels concludes that, concerning Europe, people are starting to "think the unthinkable."
Unions To Hold Actions vs. Maastricht; in Defense of 'Public Good'
Labor unions in numerous European countries will hold days of action April 2-4, with calls to modify the Maastricht criteria. The campaign will begin with activities in numerous French cities, and with a mass protest rally in Brussels; there will also be activities in London, and in several East European capitals, including Warsaw and Budapest.
On April 3, big mass events are planned in Paris, Rome, Vienna, Berlin, as well as in many other big cities in several EU countries.
One of the more interesting issues in this Europe-wide mobilization will be the "defense of public good." The relevant declaration of the European Labor Federation states, among other aspects, the following:
"Railway chaos in Great Britain, days-long power blackout in California: If basic public services do not function, entire countries get paralyzed. The so-called services in the public interest are, therefore, not eligible for reckless competition and profit orientation at all costs.
"Public works secure the infrastructure and quality of living. They have to be protected in their existing state and even expanded. The nationwide supply of gas, water and power as well as public transportation, connects human beings and enhances social integration of Europe.
"The integration of Europe poses new challenges to the so far, mostly nationally organized infrastructure and transportation grids. New investments are urgently required, to handle the increasing cross-border transport. Public services have a special responsibility for the success of European integration.
"But public services are coming under the pressure of privatization and deregulation. The negative results of that can be studied in America and in Great Britain. We need, therefore, clear European regulations to protect public goods from general rules of competition.... If privatizations are to be carried out, the state must be allowed to impose regulations, to secure a comprehensive supply of its citizens."
In that context, the labor unions call for a review of the Maastricht budgeting rules, to enable the states again to invest in the public sectors.
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