Asia News Digest
Aussie PM Rejects Probe of Intelligence Failures
The Australian government of Prime Minister John Howard has been rocked by the leaking of a damning assessment by the military's top intelligence officer who said that the nation's intelligence system had failed in the case of Iraq's WMD, and in a litany of other cases going back a decade. The allegations, by Lt. Col. Lance Collins, were made in a letter to Howard in March, in which Collins called for a Royal Commission (the form of inquiry with the widest range of powers) into Australia's intelligence system.
An official internal report into a Redress of Grievance (ROG) claim made by Collins fours years ago, conducted by a Capt. Martin Toohey, was recently sensationally leaked to The Bulletin, in which Toohey found that Collins's allegations had "considerable veracity." Toohey found that the Defence Intelligence Organization "distorts intelligence estimates to the extent those estimates are heavily driven by government policy; in other words, DIO reports what the government wants to hear."
Since the leak, Howard has been careful to not attack Collins's personal credibility, because he is such a highly respected, decorated military officer. However, he immediately rejected flatly Collins' call for a Royal Commission, and has continued to do so. On April 19, Collins released a statement in response, stating that not holding a Royal Commission into intelligence failings would threaten lives and national security.
U.S. Warns Taiwan's Chen: No Change in Status Quo
The U.S. State Department issued a strong warning against Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's provocations towards war, the Financial Times reported April 22. James Kelly, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific, James Kelly, testifying before the House International Relations Committee on April 21, said: "We have real concerns that our efforts at deterring Chinese coercion might fail if Beijing ever becomes convinced Taiwan is embarked on a course towards independence and permanent separation from China." While saying that the U.S. "strongly disagrees" with the Chinese military build-up across the Strait and their policy to use force in the case of Taiwanese efforts to declare independence, Kelly also stated that "it would be irresponsible of us and Taiwan's leaders to treat these statements as empty threats." He warned Chen that his move to create a new constitution by 2006 could result in a war, which "could destroy much of what Taiwan has built and crush its hopes for the future."
Most important, when asked if Taiwan was under the impression that the U.S. was willing to defend them at all costs (which is exactly what President Bush said in the early days of his Administration), Kelly responded, "If they heard that, they misunderstood."
Chen has claimed that the status quo has changed, that Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent nation. However, Kelly said that the U.S. opposes any change in the status quo "as we define it."
Chen rejected the new U.S. warning on April 22, saying that the "one China" policy is a "political myth," and that the "Chinese Communist regime is a traditional autocratic empire that will definitely die one day," and that he will proceed with the plan for a constitution.
China Hand Fears War Over Taiwan Provocations
Speaking to the U.S. China People's Friendship Association in Washington, D.C. on April 22, Chas Freeman, a former career diplomat with extensive experience in both East Asia and Southwest Asia, pulled no punches in describing Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's push for independence and a new constitution as a course for war. He said Chen's provocative policies are based entirely on the promise by President George W. Bush to defend Taiwan "by any means necessary." U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, and even Bush, have recently told Chen directly to stop threatening to draft a new constitution, while the State Department's James Kelly made a stronger warning in Congressional testimony April 21 (see above).
Asked by EIR April 22 if the neo-con China-hawks, despite their public face of friendship with China since 9/11, were not simply telling Chen to ignore Bush and the State Department warnings, and to proceed with his independence policies, with assurance that the U.S. will defend them, Freeman concurred. "Every time the State Department, or Bush, warns Chen to stop his provocative actions, someone at the Defense Department holds a briefing on background, watering down the warning, and essentially telling Chen to go right ahead."
Freeman said that China is indeed building up its military capacity, to be prepared to use force against Taiwan by 2006, the year Chen intends to issue a new constitution. A war would probably not be nuclear, he thinks, but it would be devastating to China, and would include Chinese strikes on the U.S. mainland or foreign basesbut would not solve the Taiwan problem! Freeman said that the U.S. must declare that it will not defend Taiwan if Chen brings about a war through actions which explicitly reject U.S. warnings, and that the U.S. should accept no change of status which is not accepted by both sides.
China To Hold Third International Silk Road Meet
China will hold the Third International Silk Road Conference in October in Xi'an, the ancient Silk Road capital, Feng Zhenglin, Chinese Vice Minister of Communications, announced April 16. "We have made transportation cooperation the priority on the agenda," Feng said, according to the Peoples Daily April 17. Transportation cooperation could bring prosperity, as the ancient commercial route across Eurasia did centuries ago, he said.
The Transport Ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation OrganizationChina, Russia, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistanhave set up a special "meeting mechanism" to this end. "The development of transport cooperation between China and Central Asian countries will further consolidate and develop ties among the relevant nations and promote socio-economic development in the region," Feng said. China is negotiating with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan on road construction, and planning to build a road linking China with Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Iran. China has already opened an "inland" port with Kazakstan, two with Kyrgyzstan, and launched 47 international cargo transport routes to Kazakstan and Kyrgyzstan. China is yet to open direct auto transport route to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
Indonesia's Wiranto Nominated Despite UN Indictment
Indonesia's Golkar, the party of former President Suharto, has nominated General Wiranto as its candidate, despite his indictment as a "war criminal" by the UN Court in East Timor. The human rights mafia is having fits, as Wiranto, the highly popular former head of the military under three PresidentsSuharto, BJ Habibie, and Abdurrahman Wahidbeat out Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung for the nomination as Golkar's Presidential candidate. The UN indictment came when Indonesia refused to follow "orders" from abroad, to indict Wiranto for his supposed responsibility as military chief for the bloodshed in East Timor after the independence election in 1999. The UN indictment means that Wiranto could potentially be arrested when he travels overseas, even if he were elected President.
Wiranto's two leading opponents are current President Megawati Sukarnopurtri, and another former general, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who resigned as Coordinating Minister for Security in Megawati's government to run for President. Golkar slightly edged out Megawati's party (PDI-P) in the legislative elections (21% to 19%), and has by far the most in-depth, nation-wide political machine, after running the country for 30 years.
The recent legislative elections left the Parliament deeply divided, with six parties all holding a significant number of seats. The July Presidential election is unlikely to have a majority winner, in which case there will be a run-off in September.
Sihanouk Slams Proposed UN Tribunal for Khmer Rouge Victims
After five years of negotiations with the UN to convene a tribunal on the Khmer Rouge genocide in Cambodia, King Sihanouk posted a message on his website on April 18, marking the 29th anniversary of the Khmer Rouge's 1975 seizure of power, to denounce the proposed UN tribunal. Sihanouk also called for doing away with the macabre exhibits of human skulls in the country, and, instead to honor those who died with a proper Buddhist cremation ceremony. Sihanouk lost five of his own children and 14 grandchildren in the genocide. In his message, Sihanouk also said he thinks the number of people killed was closer to 3 million.
The UN tribunal preparations are ongoing at this time, with at least six elderly potential defendants who could appear as defendants.
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