In this issue:

Spanish Prime Minister Orders Troops Out of Iraq

Polish Politicians At Odds After Spain's Decision

British Troops Will Be in Basra for Years

A French Proposal for an Iraq Exit Strategy

French, Egyptian Presidents Meet on Mideast, Iraq

Moroccan Intelligence Questions Links to Madrid Train Bombing

Italian Investigator Points to Mafia-Terror Links

Moro Escaped Death in 1974 Italicus Train Bombing

From Volume 3, Issue Number 17 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Apr. 27, 2004

Western European News Digest

Spanish Prime Minister Orders Troops Out of Iraq

President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, made his first official act as President to pull Spanish troops out of Iraq. Zapatero, who took office on April 17, issued orders the following day, "for the Defense Minister to do what is necessary to bring Spain's troops home from Iraq with the maximum of security and in the shortest time possible."

Zapatero said, "More than a year ago, I made a public promise. Should I be elected Prime Minister, I would make a decision to bring home Spanish troops if the UN didn't take charge of the situation. The information gathered in recent weeks leads us to believe that this [UN takeover] is not going to happen." New Foreign Minister Moratinos was to discuss Iraq policy with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, in their April 21 meeting in Washington.

Zapatero's announcement was endorsed by the German Foreign Ministry, whose spokesman said on April 19, that Germany does not think the Spanish decision should be misread as "backing-down in the face of terrorism," but an autonomous decision which was announced long ago, and moreover, is a decision appealing to the United Nations to take a central role in Iraq—which is also Germany's policy. The Foreign Ministers of Germany and France, Oskar Fischer and Michel Barnier, who met in Berlin on April 19, reiterated at their press conference the Franco-German call for a central UN role, and for a "real transfer of sovereignty to Iraq within the envisaged timetable." Barnier then left for Moscow for two days of talks with the Russian government.

Polish Politicians At Odds After Spain's Decision

President Aleksander Kwazniewski said April 20 that Poland's troops would stay in Iraq, while other leading Polish politicians have hinted just the opposite. Defense Minister Jerzy Szmajdzinski has said that Polish troops will not fill the gaps left in Iraq by the withdrawal of the Spaniards.

Tadeusz Iwinski, head of the foreign relations desk at the Polish Prime Minister's office, said in an interview to the April 21 Irish Times that Poland is considering pulling out as well, and that its decision will be influenced by the plans of the new Spanish government. Poland will very likely reduce its contingent in Iraq considerably, by the end of 2004.

Outgoing Polish Prime Minister Leszek Miller added today that "we cannot turn a blind eye to the fact that Spain and others are leaving Iraq.... We will not make any rash gestures; the final decision about the pull-out will be agreed to and thought over, but the problem exists." The decision will be taken by the new Prime Minister who takes over when Miller steps down on May 2.

British Troops Will Be in Basra for Years

"We are in cloud-cuckoo land" if anybody expects an Iraqi security force to bring stability—the British will be there for 10 years," said Brig. Nick Carter, commander of British forces in Basra, Iraq, reported the April 20 London Independent. In comments to The Scotsman, Carter also said that it will take between "two and 10 years" of British occupation to establish stability in Iraq, under the "authority of an Iraqi force" that has the support of all the rival factions.

Following an attack on British forces April 18 by the militia of Moqtada al-Sadr, Carter said that while the "wider Shi'a community regard Sadr as an upstart, they have some sympathy with his grievances. The Basra Shi'a will see an attack on Sadr as an attack on the Shi'a overall. He is becoming a bit of a talisman figure."

A French Proposal for an Iraq Exit Strategy

The April 20 editorial in Le Figaro by Renaud Girard offers an intriguing proposal for the U.S. in Iraq. Girard wrote that "things are going so badly in Iraq for America, that France henceforth must do everything possible to help its old ally."

Sending troops to Iraq won't do anything, declared Figaro. The situation is so bad that it makes one think of Napoleon in Spain—the more troops poured in, the more new recruits are found for the resistance. This is the classic vicious circle, which in the past plagued colonial expeditions.

Turning the situation over to the UN is also not a solution, the editorial continued. First of all, in the 60 years of the UN's existence, it has never shown itself capable of effectively administering the territories put in its charge.

The Iraqi question is nonetheless solvable, according to Girard. On the ground, it is evident that every day the number of Iraqis who don't want the Americans there rises. That's fine because the Americans hope to withdraw as soon as possible. The problem for Paul Bremer is the lack of credible Iraqi interlocutors.

Figaro adds: There is one possibility that has not been explored, that of a "Loya Jirga," that is, a national conference where all of the true representatives of Iraqi society are convened to decide the future of the country, to oversee the transfer of sovereignty and the departure of the occupation forces. France could attempt to organize such a conference in Paris.

Those invited would include the leading tribal leaders, both Shi'ite and Sunni, including those from rebellious regions, the two Kurdish political leaders, the two Shi'ite leaders Ayatollah al-Sistani and Imam Moqtadr al-Sadr, civil and military officials from the U.S. and Britain, along with neighboring countries, Iran, Turkey, Syria, where the role of the moderator is not to be underestimated.

Paris must again convince Washington that such a conference is not some vindictive diplomatic gesture but a friendly gesture from an old and loyal friend, the editorial concludes.

French, Egyptian Presidents Meet on Mideast, Iraq

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak made an official visit to Paris April 19 for a lengthy meeting with President Jacques Chirac. Both declared they are "extremely worried" by the Israeli/Palestinian developments, as well as the situation in Iraq.

Their proposals, however, fall short of the vision developed by U.S. Presidential candidate Lyndon H. LaRouche in his "LaRouche Doctrine." On the Israeli "withdrawal" from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, Chirac stated that such a withdrawal could only be "positive" under certain conditions: that it takes place within the context of the "Road Map" and in total cooperation with the Palestinian Authority; and that "it is a step toward the creation of a viable Palestinian state."

On the unilateral decisions taken by the Israelis concerning the non-return of Palestinian refugees, or the borders of the future state, Chirac stated that "nobody could presuppose the results of something which must be negotiated" between the two parties.

Both heads of state declared their "worries" about the evolution of the Iraqi situation. In this context, Chirac proposed the holding of an international conference on Iraq modelled on the one held in Bonn for Afghanistan, which was a disaster. For now, both await the results of the UN mission in Iraq to be led by Lakhdar Brahimi. As for the American project for a greater Middle East, Chirac warned against "those who imagine they can impose something. One does not impose; one discusses and establishes a concerted effort and a cooperation, one does not impose."

Moroccan Intelligence Questions Links to Madrid Train Bombing

Tahar Ben Jelloun, one of Morocco's leading authors, writing in the April 22 weekly edition of Die Zeit gave a picture of the family and other background of the Moroccans who have been arrested in Spain since the March 11 train bombing. The portrait reviews the social problems and slum districts of Morocco's big cities, such as Tangier, Fez, and Casablanca, but leaves the question open as to whether there is evidence of the role of the arrested Moroccans in the train bombing.

Jelloun reported a discussion with an unnamed senior intelligence officer in Morocco, who told him that, these days, with the many overlaps between drug-related and other organized crime and terrorism, it is difficult to trace who are the real terrorists. The Moroccans, killed in a Madrid apartment are typical small-time criminals, mostly involved in drugs, who make some extra money with illegal activity. They were likely recruited the day before March 11, to bring some suitcases somewhere, for money. The suitcases were then picked up by others who planted the bombs on the train. The real terrorists are not the Moroccans but others, who are not necessarily, Islamic extremists.

Italian Investigator Points to Mafia-Terror Links

A leading Italian anti-Mafia investigator points to links between organized crime and terrorists. At a Rome press briefing April 20, prominently covered in Italian and German media, Pierluigi Vigna, the chief prosecutor of organized-crime rings such as the Mafia, said the threat posed by such groups was goes beyond criminal activities: "We have evidence that groups of the Camorra are implicated in an exchange of weapons for drugs with terrorist groups." Asked by journalists to be more precise, Vigna said: "Islamic terrorist groups."

Vigna said that because of ongoing investigations, he would not go into further details, but did cite the example of a Camorra member in Sicily, who converted to Islam, who made contact with Arabic and other Muslims detained in Italian prisons.

Findings of Spanish investigators that are looking into the background of the March 11 Madrid train bomb incidents, provided evidence of drugs-for-arms/explosives swaps, as well, Italian media reported.

In Italy alone, the four main organized-crime rings—the Mafia, the Camorra, the n'Drangheta, and Sacra Corona Unita—make a combined "income" of more than 100 billion euros annually, from illegal activities, Vigna said. Drug deals alone yield 59 billion euros per year. The Camorra, especially, is known for running a big illegal trade with explosives; therefore, their links to terrorist groups deserve special attention by law enforcement authorities.

Moro Escaped Death in 1974 Italicus Train Bombing

Former Italian Prime Minister Aldo Moro's daughter, Maria Fida Moro, wrote in her new book, La Nebulosa—del Caso Moro, that originally, her father was supposed to travel on the same Italicus train that was torn apart by a (neo-nazi) terrorist bomb on Aug. 4, 1974. Moro was kidnapped and assassinated by Red Brigades terrorists in 1978. Twelve passengers were killed and several hundred wounded in the incident. Moro was expected to rejoin his family for summer vacation on Aug. 5, but decided virtually at the last minute not to take that train.

Investigators who reconstructed the incident said hundreds of people would have been killed if the bomb had detonated when the train entered a nearby tunnel. Parallels have been drawn recently between the Italicus incident and the March 11 Madrid train bombs.

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