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This article appears in the August 11, 2006 issue of Executive Intelligence Review.

Will Bush 'October Surprise' Scam
Trigger World War III?

by Jeffrey Steinberg

On Jan. 11, 2006, keynoting an international webcast in Washington, D.C., Lyndon LaRouche issued a pointed warning about the danger of a new Mideast war. In his remarks, LaRouche spoke of a possible "fake weapons of mass destruction" hoax, orchestrated by Vice President Dick Cheney and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. LaRouche warned:

"We also have a situation in Israel, which is extremely tricky and dangerous, and it involves Bush, but most specifically Cheney, Vice President Cheney. As you know, Ariel Sharon is very seriously ill, is crippled, and will probably never again participate in a government in Israel. Whether he will live or not, is also in question, given his condition. Or whether he's able to function at all, if he lives, is in question.

"The threat is, that a Benjamin Netanyahu, who is one of the ugliest characters on the Israeli scene, of any significance, is in discussion with the circles of Vice President Cheney. And Vice President Cheney would like to have an attack on Syria, by Netanyahu. And if the Israeli forces in this strike attack into Syria, were to occupy some territory, they would haul some evidence from the desert where the Israelis are holding it, which they created for this purpose, to try to "prove" that Saddam Hussein had had weapons of mass destruction, but had moved them into Syria. But this "evidence" would be moved into Syria by the Israelis from the Israeli desert, where it's being housed in preparation for this operation.

"That's what's going on.

"We could have the entire region of Southwest Asia, blow up. And a lot more soldiers being killed suddenly, because of this complication—[more] U.S. soldiers—than there have been so far.

"This is a grim situation, in which virtual treason by the Vice President of the United States, who is a known liar, threatens civilization, and our civilization here in particular."

Our Decision To Publish

Now, in recent weeks, EIR specialists have received a series of new reports from qualified U.S. and Israeli sources, suggesting that a desperate Bush-Cheney White House is pushing a number of "October Surprise" schemes, all aimed at salvaging the November 2006 midterm U.S. House and Senate elections for the Republican Party—regardless of the fact that any one of these reckless schemes could trigger a planetary plunge into war.

The information arriving at the doorsteps of EIR came from distinct and unconnected intelligence circles, with proven, albeit not always perfect track-records of accuracy. Those reports, in turn, have been cross-checked with experts from a number of countries and agencies, who have, in some cases, added their own assessments or details. Given this pattern of warnings, the editors of EIR concluded that it was necessary to publish this report, with the appropriate caveats stated upfront.

For one thing, no Democratic Party candidate, as of the publication of this report, can honestly say that he or she had not been warned about the prospect of such a dirty scheme emanating from the Bush-Cheney-Karl Rove White House. As events careen further and further out of control in the extended Southwest and Central Asia region, particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan, and as the world moves ever closer to a chain-reaction financial catastrophe, the level of desperation in and around 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue will reach earthquake proportions. As one senior U.S. intelligence officer commented on the "October Surprise" prospects, "It is totally within the realm of probability that sometime before the November elections, this White House, with Bush, Cheney and Rove, will attempt some kind of desperate stunt like a fake WMD incident. Wasn't the Iraq war itself the result of just such a WMD hoax?"

An Israeli source with close ties to the Kadima Party of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert subsequently warned that the scheme that LaRouche warned of in his Jan. 11 webcast, may be a live feature of Israel's ongoing invasion of Lebanon, despite the fact that saner elements within the Israeli military institutions reportedly consider such a planting of fake WMD evidence on Syrian territory by Israeli forces to be "not credible," and to carry the risk of highly damaging political "blowback," were Israel to be implicated in such a fraudulent scheme.

Strange Encounter in the Rockies

The suspicion that the "October Surprise" scheme is live has been further tweaked by the fact that Vice President Cheney and ex-Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a now-famous weekend meeting in mid-June, at the Beaver Creek, Colorado conference of the American Enterprise Institute. Netanyahu widely advertised that he delivered messages from Cheney back to the government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, in a session of "ex-prime ministers" that he attended immediately on his return to Israel. Weeks later, Israeli fighter jets were carpet-bombing Lebanon, in preparation for a full-scale Israeli Defense Force ground invasion, that has already struck into the Bekka Valley area of Lebanon near the Syrian border.

Regional sources warn that, while it may be the case that neither Israel nor the U.S. government intend to see the Lebanon war extend across the border into Syria, the longer the Israeli military action inside Lebanon goes on, the greater the likelihood that Israeli forces will extend the operations into Syrian territory. Were Syria to be drawn into the war by such Israeli actions, it is uncertain how long Iran would remain on the sidelines. Then, a general Mideast war would be unstoppable.

A recent report by Deutsche Bank warned that any Middle East conflict that extended to Syria and Iran would almost certainly lead to the shutting off of the Straits of Hormuz, the main route of oil tankers from the Persian Gulf. And this would trigger $200-a-barrel oil.

Other 'October Surprises'

One very reliable U.S. intelligence source warned in recent weeks that another "October Surprise" scheme is also being pursued by the Cheney circles. This scheme involves Iranian arms dealer and notorious Iran-Contra fabricator Manucher Ghorbanifar. According to the source, during the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988, Iran briefly occupied an Iraqi island, and confiscated Iraqi chemical weapons, which they were able to reverse engineer. Now, Ghorbanifar is reportedly attempting to obtain several of those "Iraqi" chemical weapons cannisters, to deliver to U.S. Special Forces units inside Iraq, who would plant them inside the country, and "discover" the Iraqi WMD at an appropriate moment, just before the November elections in the U.S. Ghorbanifar is reportedly scheming to get $25 million for delivering what will be labeled relatively new "Iraqi chemical weapons."

Yet another scheme to bail out the Republicans in November has been reported from an American intelligence specialist with close ties in Pakistan. The source stated that the U.S. has now all but given up on the Hamid Karzai government in Kabul, Afghanistan, which is facing a mounting insurgency from the Taliban, who have now struck deals with some of the country's leading drug lords (Afghanistan is producing an estimated 90% of the world's opium). According to the source, working through the Pakistani ISI, the Bush Administration is signaling a willingness to allow the Taliban to come back into power—in return for the elimination of Osama Bin Laden and the number two Al Qaeda leader Ayman Zawaheri.

European and Arab diplomatic sources contacted through EIR's Western European offices, expressed their own belief that the Bush White House, particularly Cheney and Rove, could be counted on to attempt a desperate "October Surprise" operation. One German Middle East expert also cautioned against taking too narrow a view of the potential targets. He warned that events inside Ibero-America offered another target of opportunity for such mayhem, particularly given the instability in Cuba that could result from Fidel Castro's death, and ongoing plans to blow up the situation inside Venezuela, where Hugo Chavez is the man the Bush Administration loves to hate.

Ironically, the danger of a major asymmetric warfare attack inside the United States is also growing by leaps and bounds—not because of some White House wet dreams about a "new 9-11" to rouse the American people behind George W. Bush—but because of the rapidly accelerating hatred of the United States throughout the world, particularly the Muslim world, as the result of the perception that Washington is steering Tel Aviv's murderous "shock and awe" assault on sovereign Lebanon.

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