Executive Intelligence Review

FROM EIR DAILY ALERT


Chatham House To Erdogan, Allow Turkey To Be Raped, and Expect No Help from Russia or China

Aug. 15, 2018 (EIRNS)—There is an important component of deliberate financial warfare in the current Turkish crisis. This was made abundantly clear in an arrogant article published Aug. 14 by Lord Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs chairman who is now the head of Chatham House, the top London think-tank also known as the Royal Institute of International Affairs. O’Neill explained in a feature for Project Syndicate yesterday, how and why Turkey’s President Erdogan will have to surrender and allow the rape of his country:

“As the Turkish lira continues to depreciate against the dollar, fears of a classic emerging-market crisis have come to the fore. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s populist economic policies have finally caught up to him, and sooner or later, he will have to make nice with his country’s traditional Western allies.”

The Turkish crisis, O’Neill wrote

“gives credence, at least for some people, to the notion that ‘a crisis is a terrible thing to waste.’ I suspect that many Western policymakers, in particular, are not entirely unhappy about Turkey’s plight.... [Erdogan is] a belligerent leader who does not realize—or refuses to acknowledge—that his populist economic policies are unsustainable....

“The country must drastically tighten its domestic monetary policy, curtail foreign borrowing, and prepare for the likelihood of a full-blown economic recession, during which time domestic saving will slowly have to be rebuilt....

“Given the unlikelihood of some external source of funding emerging, Erdogan will eventually have to back down on some of his unorthodox policies. My guess is that we’ll see a return to a more conventional monetary policy, and possibly a new fiscal-policy framework.”

O’Neill then proceeded to tell Erdogan not to expect any help from any other countries.

“Russia is sometimes mentioned as a potential savior for Turkey. There is no doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin would love to use Turkey’s crisis to pull it even further away from its NATO allies. But Erdogan and his advisors would be deeply mistaken to think that Russia can fill Turkey’s financial void. A Kremlin intervention would do little for Turkey, and would likely exacerbate Russia’s own financial and economic challenges....

“As for China, though it will not want to waste the opportunity to increase its influence vis-á-vis Turkey, it is not the country’s style to step into such a volatile situation, much less assume responsibility for solving the problem....

“That means that Turkey’s economic salvation lies with its conventional Western allies: the U.S. and the EU (particularly France and Germany).”

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