VIPS Intelligence Veterans Draft Memo to President Biden Warning against Pelosi Taiwan Trip

July 31, 2022 (EIRNS)—It is “our collective opinion that such a visit by Speaker Pelosi would be viewed in the most serious light by China,” wrote the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) in a July 30 memorandum to President Joe Biden, regarding Pelosi’s proposed visit to Taiwan. “China would react quite strongly, reflecting the reality that it would consider such a visit close to an existential threat warranting high risk of armed hostilities.”

The memorandum, posted to Antiwar.com, points to the enormous threat of sparking a confrontation inherent in Pelosi’s proposed visit, and the authors write that “the Speaker appears to be conducting unilateral diplomacy,” sidestepping the Presidency. “The U.S. military is in no position to engage in a large-scale military confrontation with China over Taiwan,” they assess. “The consequences of any miscalculation ... would be dire, in terms of the real possibility of a U.S. military defeat.”

“Simply put,” they write, “not only can we not prevail militarily over China ... but also the economic consequences [of a conflict] would be devastating to the global economy, including that of the United States.”

In light of the Chinese announcement of live-fire military drills conducted from Fujian, opposite the Taiwan Straits from the island, they warn that were a military clash to result in the loss of American ships, it would be likely that “you would at that point be offered military options that include a nuclear retaliatory strike on China.”

They conclude that the threat of profound escalation is real: “We call to mind that on Oct. 2, 1950, China’s Premier Zhou Enlai warned that China would intervene in Korea if American troops went north of the 38th parallel. We all know what happened when that warning went unheeded. We also know that top U.S. military advisors at that time had nuclear strikes on China high on their list of options. China knows that too.”