Swiss Military Intelligence Warns, Don’t Underestimate Putin, He Will ‘Walk the Talk’

Sept. 28, 2022 (EIRNS)—Swiss Lt. Col. Ralph Bosshard, a retired army intelligence officer who is a close observer of the Ukrainian situation, and whom EIR has interviewed in the past, has a short analysis posted on the German website NachDenkSeiten, on Sept. 26.

Writing before the results of the referendums, Bosshard said they were being held in the shadow of the Ukrainian government terror tactics. “The fear in the affected areas of a Ukrainian criminal court is likely to be great should they come under Ukrainian control again. Reports of Ukrainian atrocities in Izyum, Balakliya and other places will not find their way into Western media, probably, but in Russian.”

He warned that once the republics join Russia, they become Russian territory and therefore an attack on them is an attack on Russia, which escalates the danger of nuclear war Bosshard writes, warning: “Claims from NATO circles that Russia is wary of using nuclear weapons and will flinch are purely speculative and ultimately irresponsible. The West may still be underestimating Russia’s resolve.”

He suggests that once the regions are incorporated, “Russia will give Ukraine a few days to withdraw their troops from the new Russian territories, which, of course, an outraged Kiev will reject. But Russia will hardly make such a demand without being able to take countermeasures. Vladimir Putin has shown himself in the past as able to ‘walk the talk,’ and there’s no reason to believe he will make an exception this time.”

As Russian territory, constitutionally Putin will be able to deploy Russian reserves, and therefore, deploy a much larger force. Over the next period the newly mobilized reserves will be re-trained and deployed into the republics, while the troops that have been there since February will be withdrawn for a rest and future redeployment.

Bosshard concludes:

“The Russian plans for the next few months could look something like this. Russia is not pressed for time and will now try to avoid personnel losses, because the experienced troops will soon be needed again. Winning a few villages wouldn’t justify taking big risks, especially in Kharkiv Oblast. Demands for the start of ceasefire negotiations are currently illusory. Both warring parties are currently showing little interest in it. Certainly, Russian President Vladimir Putin has discussed his next steps on Ukraine with his partners in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and Iran is also onboard. No matter what the course of the war in Ukraine looks like over the next few weeks and months, the uprising of the underdogs in world politics will continue. Leading this was probably one of Russia’s main objectives.”